March 11, 2019 - Written by John Cameron
STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Exchange Rate: GBP/USD Rises despite Dovish BoE Speech and Rebound in US Retail Sales
Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) Exchange Rate Rallies despite Dovish BoE Policymaker Speech
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate rallied over the course of Monday, and the pairing is currently trading at an inter-bank rate of $1.3091.
This afternoon, the Bank of England’s (BoE) Jonathan Haskel said during a speech that British business investment is likely to stay low for the next few years.
Because of the uncertainty surrounding Brexit, and what this will mean for the country, this cloud of uncertainty is unlikely to lift quickly.
Haskel highlighted that companies need to know whether the UK will end up with a customs union agreement with the EU or a free trade agreement to get a sense of the type of barriers they could face.
The central bank policymaker said:
‘The longer term question is whether investment will eventually bounce back after uncertainty is resolved. The answer to this depends on what trade deal is struck.
‘At least for the next few years the prospect of low investment seems possible.’
US Dollar (USD) Slips despite Rise in US Retail Sales
The Pound (GBP) continued to rise against the US Dollar (USD) despite data showing that US retail sales rose by more than forecast.
January’s retail sales control group rose by 1.1% as sales were lifted by an increase in purchases of building materials and discretionary spending.
This data release showed that sales rebounded at the start of 2019 following the largest decline in 10 years.
However, the revised data from December showed that the contraction of -1.7% had been readjusted to -2.3%.
This data could have an impact on the US government’s Q4 GDP estimate as core retail sales correspond closely with the consumer spending component of GDP.
Pound (GBP) Rises despite UK-EU Impasse
Reports surfaced suggesting that the UK and European Union had still not made a breakthrough in their discussions over the weekend.
However, the Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate continued to rise despite Brexit anxieties.
An unnamed EU official told Reuters:
‘May has boxed herself even deeper into a corner, it seems the second meaningful vote will go ahead on Tuesday but it also seems like it won’t be the last meaningful vote on this.
‘We really want to be over with it now. It’s not going anywhere so even an extension is unlikely to break the impasse. There is not much patience or good will left on our side.’
Pound US Dollar Outlook: Will the GBP/USD Slide as PM’s Deal is Rejected by MPs?
Looking ahead to Tuesday, the Pound (GBP) could slip against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of the UK manufacturing production and industrial production figures.
January’s manufacturing production is forecast to contract by -2%, which could dampen sentiment in Sterling.
February’s US Consumer Price Index is likely to cause movement in the pairing.
If the CPI rises by 0.2% as predicted, the ‘Greenback’ could rise against the Pound.
Brexit is likely to remain one of the main catalysts for movement in the Pound, as tomorrow will hold the second ‘meaningful vote’.
If Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal is rejected by Parliament, the Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate could slide.
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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts