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Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) Exchange Rate Muted despite Disappointing US Industrial Production

April 16, 2019 - Written by John Cameron

Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) Exchange Rate Flat despite Unexpected Fall in US Industrial Production

The Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate remained muted, and the pairing is currently trading at an inter-bank rate of $1.1290.

Data released this afternoon revealed that US industrial production unexpectedly fell by -0.1% in March.

Further data revealed that US manufacturing output was unchanged after two consecutive months of decline.

However, this led to the largest quarterly decrease in production since 2017.

This left the outlook for the manufacturing sector which accounts for around 12% of the economy, very cloudy.

Euro (EUR) Flat as German Investors’ Moods Brighten

This morning, data revealed that the mood among German investors improved for the sixth consecutive month.

The German ZEW economic sentiment survey revealed that the outlook for the Eurozone’s largest economy brightened.

April’s figure rose from -3.6 to 3.1, the first time since March 2018 that this figure has been positive.

ZEW President, Achim Wambach said the slight improvement was due to hope that the global economy would develop less poorly than previously thought.

Achim Wambach said:

‘The postponement of the Brexit deadline may also have contributed to buoy the economic outlook.’

US Dollar (USD) Muted as Manufacturing Remains ‘Fairly Subdued’

On Monday, the US Empire State Manufacturing Index rebounded in April, however this could do little to buoy the ‘Greenback’.

The index rose from a two-year low of 3.7 in March to a higher-than-expected 10.1.

However, the New York Fed said that while factory production rose in New York State, it still remained ‘fairly subdued’, which likely weighed on the US Dollar.

Euro US Dollar Outlook: Will the EUR/USD Exchange Rate Fall on a Disappointing Eurozone CPI?

Looking ahead to Wednesday, the Euro (EUR) could fall against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of the Eurozone’s Consumer Price Index (CPI).

If annual CPI rises in March, but fails to meet the European Central Bank’s 2% target for the fifth consecutive month, the single currency could fall.

Later in the day, the US Dollar could fall following a speech from the Federal Reserve’s James Bullard.

If Bullard’s tone is dovish, and indicates that the Fed are considering an interest rate cut in 2019, the Euro US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate could rise.

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