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US Dollar Australian Dollar (USD/AUD) Exchange Rate Sinks as Australian Jobs Data Soars Past Forecasts

August 15, 2019 - Written by John Cameron

USD/AUD Exchange Rate Falls as Australian Unemployment Holds Steady


The US Dollar Australian Dollar (USD/AUD) exchange rate fell today, leaving the pairing trading around AU$1.477.

Australian unemployment rate figure held steady in July, remaining at 5.2% as expected.

Meanwhile, the Australian employment change figure for July shot up above forecasts from -2.4 thousand to 41.1 thousand.

Marcel Thieliant, the Senior Australia Economist at Capital Economics, said:

‘The strong rise in employment in July suggests the [Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)] won't be in a rush to ease policy further… [W]e think it won't be long before the unemployment rate starts to rise again.’

As a result, the Australian Dollar has benefited today as traders are becoming more hopeful that the RBA will hold back on any rate cuts in the near-term, with the bank now possibly tempering some of its more aggressive forecasts.

However, global trade concerns still remain in focus for many ‘Aussie’ traders, as US-China trade tensions show no signs of easing even after US President Donald Trump’s recent concession on tariffs for Chinese goods.

USD/AUD Exchange Rate Eases as US Traders Await Retail Sales for July


US Dollar traders are remaining apprehensive ahead of today’s publication of the US retail sales figures for July, which are expected to ease from 0.4% to 0.3%.

Flash nonfarm productivity figures for the second quarter are also expected to ease, leaving ‘Greenback’ traders feeling jittery over the health of the US economy in the near-term.

Analysts at Danskse Bank commented:

‘[T]he retail sales indicator is very volatile and prints negative from time to time despite consumption actually growing when looking at the bigger picture, so in that sense we would not be surprised if we get one bad print after some strong months.’

The US Dollar could begin to claw back some of its gains following the publication of the US industrial figures for July, which are expected to rise from 0% to 0.2%.

US Dollar Australian Dollar Outlook: US-China Trade Tensions to Remain in Focus


US Dollar traders will be looking ahead to tomorrow’s flash Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August.

As this is expected to decrease from 98.4 to 97.2, we could see the ‘Greenback’ lose some ground against its peers.

Tomorrow will also see the publication of the US housing stats figures for July.

Meanwhile, ‘Aussie’ traders will be paying close attention to global trade developments.

Any further signs of tensions rising between the US and China could considerably weigh on the risk-averse Australian Dollar.

The US Dollar Australian Dollar exchange rate is likely to remain volatile for the rest of this week, with USD traders taking particular note of the state of the US economy as the trade war continues to weigh on market sentiment in the ‘Greenback’.

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