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Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) Exchange Rate Edges Higher as US Jobless Claims Continue to Rise in July

July 23, 2020 - Written by John Cameron

EUR/USD Exchange Rate Rises as Doubts Grow Over America’s Economic Recovery

The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate edged higher by 0.2% today, with the pairing currently trading around $1.15.

The US Dollar (USD) struggled today following a worse-than-expected US Initial Jobless Claims report for July, which rose above forecasts from 1,307 thousand to 1,416 thousand.

Richard Flynn, UK managing director at Charles Schwab, confirmed fears that the US economy is struggling from the coronavirus pandemic, saying:

‘Today’s rise in initial jobless will disappoint the market, especially following over two straight months of positive data. With coronavirus hotspots flaring up around the country and some businesses pausing or rolling back their grand re-opening, key parts of the U.S. economy are still ailing.’

‘While stocks have held on to their gains, the market’s internal conditions suggest there is some valid scepticism around how long this strong performance can last.’

USD has also continued to underperform on growing expectations that the American economy will suffer worse than many of its peers, such as China and the Eurozone.

US coronavirus cases approached 4 million today, with over 2,600 new cases each hour. As a result, investors are becoming increasingly concerned that the US economy – the largest in the world – could suffer in the months ahead.

Euro (EUR) Rises as German Consumer Confidence Improves for August

The Euro (EUR) edged higher today after Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for August beat forecasts and rose from -9.4 to 0.3%. As a result, EUR investors are becoming more hopeful for the Eurozone’s largest economy’s recovery.

Rolf Buerkl, a researcher at Germany's GfK institute, commented that these figures show that consumers were becoming increasingly confident that the German economy could be on the road to recovery.

However, Buerkl warned that a fresh wave of the coronavirus ‘would quickly shatter any hope of economic recovery’.

Nonetheless, the EUR has continued to outperform the US Dollar (USD) as investors become more hopeful that the Eurozone’s economy could recover.

This follows this week’s consensus on the European Union’s €750 billion recovery fund, which has been a turning point in the bloc’s fiscal integration.

EUR/USD Forecast: Could US-China Trade Tensions Boost Safe-Haven Demand for ‘Greenback’?

US Dollar (USD) investors will be looking ahead to tomorrow’s release of the flash US Composite PMI for July. Any improvement in the US economy could boost the ‘Greenback’.

Euro (EUR) investors will be keeping a close eye on the Eurozone’s Markit PMI Composite for July. If this confirms forecasts and rises out of contraction territory, then we could see the EUR/USD exchange head higher.

The EUR/USD exchange rate will remain sensitive to global risk sentiment. If US-China trade tensions worsen, we could see the US Dollar benefit as safe-haven demand increases.

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