Pound Euro Weekly Forecast: GBP/EUR Exchange Rate to Weaken over UK-EU Vaccine Row

March 22, 2021 - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Pound Euro Weekly Forecast: GBP/EUR Exchange Rate to Weaken over UK-EU Vaccine Row

The Pound Sterling to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is weakening during this morning’s session as the row between the UK and EU over vaccine exports heats up.

At the time of writing the Pound to Euro exchange rate is currently trading at around 1.1614.

Pound Sterling (GBP) Exchange Rates Steady as Record Number of People Vaccinated across the UK

The Pound is steady this morning as the UK recorded a third consecutive record day of vaccination doses given.

It has been reported that 844,285 people received a dose of the vaccine in 24 hours, a figure which was praised by NHS chief executive Sir Simon Stevens:

‘In just one day we vaccinated the equivalent of the entire adult populations of Liverpool, Southampton and Oxford combined.’

Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the figure and went on to say:

‘A huge thank you to everyone involved and please come forward to get your jab when you are invited to do so.’

It comes as Boris Johnson is expected to call EU leaders to ease tensions regarding reports the European Union will block exports of the AstraZeneca vaccine to the UK.

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace commented on the reports saying:

’It would be counterproductive because the one thing we know about vaccine production and manufacturing is that it is collaborative.’

Euro Exchange Rates Muted by EU-UK Vaccine Row

The Euro has been muted this morning as the row between the EU and UK over vaccine exports continues.

EU leaders are expected to meet on Thursday to discuss the bloc’s delayed vaccine rollout, and a recent spike in coronavirus cases across many member states.

Despite the European Medicines Agency confirming that the AstraZeneca vaccine is safe to use after concerns over an increased risk of blood clots was reported, many Europeans have lost faith in the vaccine.

A YouGov poll published this morning showed that 61 percent of French respondents believed the vaccine was unsafe, with 55 percent of Germans feeling the same way.

Both Spain and Italy reported similar figures, with 52 and 43 percent unsure on the vaccine respectively.

Matt Smith, lead data journalist at YouGov, commented on the poll:

’After concerns about its protection and potency were raised by leaders across Europe, the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine has undoubtedly suffered damage to its reputation for safety on the Continent.’

’Not only have we seen considerable rises in those who consider it unsafe in the last two weeks in Europe, the AstraZeneca vaccine continues to be seen as substantially less safe than its Pfizer and Moderna counterparts.’

GBP/EUR Exchange Rate Outlook: UK Employment Data in Focus

For Pound investors tomorrow sees the release of employment change data from December of 2020.

The data is expected to show a steep increase in those out of employment following new lockdown restrictions imposed at the end of December and heading into the New Year.

Furthermore, wage growth data released for January is expected to have increased again which could offset the predicted 0.1% increase to 5.2% in the unemployment rate.

In absence of any notable data from the Eurozone tomorrow, investors will be keeping an eye on the ongoing row on vaccine exports between the UK and EU, any further developments would drive movement.

Even more so, a further increase in coronavirus cases and deaths across the bloc would add further pressure to Euro sentiment, as Germany seeks to extend lockdown measures.

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