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GBP/AUD Forecast: Pound Australian Dollar Exchange Rate Edges Higher as ‘Aussie’ Sours

August 20, 2021 - Written by John Cameron

The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate has edged higher this morning despite the release of disappointing retail sales figures from the UK.

At the time of writing the GBP/AUD pairing are trading around the AU$1.9143 level as a worsening coronavirus situation in Australia dents ‘Aussie’ appeal.

Pound (GBP) Pushes Higher Despite Fall in UK Retail Sales

The Pound has pushed higher against the Australian Dollar this morning despite an unexpected fall in UK retail sales data.

Retail sales fell -2.5% during July, missing forecasts of a 0.4% increase as the boom of Euro 2020 began to wear off.

Aled Patchett, head of retail and consumer goods at Lloyds Bank commented on the figures, saying:

‘With the UK’s recovery lagging behind that of other major economies, the return of holidays, social events including weddings and the general easing of restrictions last month hasn’t turbocharged consumer spending in the way many hoped it might have.’

‘As with last year, this could see shoppers front-load the traditional Christmas spending window as they are asked to select from a leaner menu of gifts and goods than usual.’

If the market mood sours further the Pound could find itself supported further against the Australian Dollar heading into the weekend.

Australian Dollar (AUD) Struggles on Back of Ongoing Coronavirus Situation

The Australian Dollar has struggled across the board this morning as the ongoing coronavirus situation in Australia limits the ‘Aussie’.

It comes as New South Wales records a further 644 cases and Sydney extends its current lockdown measures.

New South Wales (NSW) Premier Gladys Berejiklian commented on the ongoing outbreak, saying:

‘I apologise to the vast majority of people in those communities who are doing the right thing but for our health and safety moving forward we need to make these difficult decisions.’

More so, a more fearful market mood has driven investors to safe-haven currencies, meaning the risk-correlated ‘Aussie’ has missed out heading into the weekend.

GBP/AUD Exchange Rate Outlook: Flash PMI’s in Focus

On Monday, flash PMI figures from the UK will be looked at to drive movement in Sterling.

Whilst the preliminary figures are not as influential as the final figures, they are expected to drive movement in GBP exchange rates.

The GBP/AUD pairing will continue to be driven by any further coronavirus developments in the coming days as Pound investors digest the rise in global cases.

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