Pound to Dollar Forecast: Fresh Multi-year Best in 1.34s

April 30, 2025 - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: Fresh Multi-year Best in 1.34s

After hitting 3-year highs just above 1.3440 late on Monday, the Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) was in consolidation mode early on Tuesday.

A raft of weak US data, however, triggered fresh buying interest and it traded just above 1.3400 after the New York open

According to Scotiabank; “The bull trend is intact and has been reinforced by GBP’s push to a fresh multi-year high in the mid-1.34s. Near-term resistance is now expected closer to 1.3750, followed by the psychologically important 1.40 level. Near-term support is expected in the mid-lower 1.32s.”

US consumer confidence dipped further to 86.0 for April from a revised 93.9 the previous month and below consensus forecasts of 87.7.

The JOLTS data recorded a decline in job openings to 7.19mn from a revised 7.48mn previously and below expectations of 7.49mn.

On Monday, the Dallas Fed manufacturing index also posted a sharp decline for April.

Scotiabank commented; “More data is needed but the stagflationary tone of the Dallas report will add to concerns about economic prospects, with no sign that trade friction will ease in a meaningful way any time soon.”


According to ING; “The dollar’s underwhelming start of the week served as a reminder that even if the worst of the confidence crisis on the dollar’s reserve value may be past us, markets remain very much minded to link the greenback’s faith with US economic performance.”

US-China relations and wider trade policies will continue to be monitored closely.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) currency strategist Carol Kong commented; "Given the conflicting signals, I think a deal is very unlikely in the near-term and China might be preparing for a protracted trade war."

Overnight, there were reports that President Trump would ease tariffs on auto imports.

CBA’s Kong noted some market hope; "Overall, the U.S. tariff policy is very chaotic and markets definitely don't like that, but there is indeed some growing optimism that the worst of the trade war is over."

Nevertheless, she added; "I think U.S. economic data will definitely deteriorate further from here."

Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio considers that a tipping point has been reached; “the world is past the point of avoiding a historic realignment in trade, capital markets, and geopolitics.”


He added; “The shift away from U.S.-centric trade and investment flows is already happening — and it’s happening fast. Exporters, importers, producers, and investors are realizing that regardless of what happens with tariffs, reduced interdependence with the U.S. is now a reality that must be planned for.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts