Pound to Dollar Tech Forecast: 1.3600 "in Next Few Days" say Strategists

June 3, 2025 - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Tech Forecast: 1.3600 "in Next Few Days" say Strategists

• GBP/USD slips back to 1.3500 area
• Pound bull trend intact but 1.3600 key
• Bailey flags global uncertainty, cautious on rates
• US jobs data supports US Dollar rebound risk

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) again failed to hold above 1.3550 in Asia on Tuesday and retreated to the 1.3500 area and traded close to this level after the latest US data.

For now, the focus is still on potential resistance levels.

According to Scotiabank; “GBPUSD is in a clear bull trend with a multimonth sequence of higher lows and higher highs following its recovery from its January low around 1.22.”

It added; “Its latest push has cleared fresh multi-year highs and its momentum remains bullish but well short of overbought levels, leaving ample room for further gains.

UoB commented; “There has been an increase in short-term upward momentum, but for a sustained advance, GBP must first close above 1.3600.

It added; “The likelihood of GBP closing above 1.3600 will grow in the next few days as long as the ‘strong support’ level at 1.3470 is intact.”


Bank of England officials testified at the Treasury Select Committee on Tuesday.

Governor Bailey pointed to questions surrounding the global economic situation and the US-China trade war.

He added; “the impact of fragmenting the world trading system is negative for world growth and activity”.

On interest rates he commented; “I think the path remains downwards, but how far and how quickly is now shrouded in a lot more uncertainty, frankly. We’ve added the word ‘unpredictable’ to ‘uncertain’ because of the sheer nature of what we’re dealing with.”

He refused to offer any guidance on the June interest rate decision.

Scotiabank commented; “Comments from BoE Gov. Bailey can be characterized as cautiously neutral with a focus on the near-term risk of inflation balanced against medium to longer term concerns about the outlook for the UK labor market. Fundamentally, UK-US yield spreads are offering support to GBPUSD.”

Overall dollar sentiment remains weak, but some investment banks are wary over any shift in sentiment.


The latest labour-market data was slightly stronger than expected with JOLTS reporting an increase in job openings to 7.39mn for April from a revised 7.20mn in March and above consensus forecasts of 7.11mn.

Credit Agricole commented; “Among the more fundamental drivers of a potential USD reversal would be evidence that the US economy is less vulnerable than feared and the Fed is less dovish than expected by the markets.

It added; “With many negatives already in the price of the USD by now, it would take negative data surprises and/or dovish Fedspeak to add to the cyclical headwinds for the currency.”

HSBC also warned over the risk of a turn; “The danger for markets is that they lazily extrapolate today’s mood into a long-term forecast of structural USD weakness. All of these drivers can shift in tone as part of ongoing trade negotiations, for example. US economic data can continue to show the resilience that undermines gloomier forecasts for the USD.

The labour market will continue to be a major focus.

HSBC looked ahead to Friday’s jobs data; “the consensus looks for another relatively resilient set of data with NPF of 125K and a steady unemployment rate at 4.2%. If correct, it would allow the Fed’s patience to extend, which may point to a range-bound USD rather than a persistently weaker one.”

According to Scotiabank US data is likely to show signs of vulnerability; “Still, it’s about now that estimates (allowing for distribution and logistics lags) suggested the sharp fall off in US/ China trade should start being felt a bit more obviously in the US economy.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts