Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR to See "1.1370-1.1430 Range Today"

June 10, 2025 - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR to See "1.1370-1.1430 Range Today"

Euro-Zone and US surveys have both suggested a boost to investor confidence, but the dollar has failed to sustain gains with the Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate trading back above the 1.14 level from 1.1375 lows.

According to ING; “It's hard to see EUR/USD breaking out of a 1.1370-1.1430 range today, with directional breakout risks equally balanced.”

CIBC is positive on the pair; “we anticipate underlying EUR resilience as the broad USD diversification narrative is set to persist.”

Events in Los Angeles will command media headlines. If tensions spread to other major cities or there is an overall escalation, there is the risk that wider confidence in US assets will take another hit.

Markets will also continue to monitor trade talks closely.

MUFG commented; “The talks are taking place amidst growing evidence of the economic disruption from the tariff war. The latest trade report from China released yesterday revealed that exports to the US declined by almost -20% in May which was the largest monthly drop since the start of COVID.”

Saxo chief investment strategist Charu Chanana commented; “The extension of talks and some positive sound bites from the U.S. officials could offer short-term relief, markets are unlikely to buy into this optimism without real structural progress."


She added; "Unlike the Geneva talks, where tariff relief provided easy wins, the London talks are now tackling thornier issues like chip export controls, rare earths, and student visas."

TD Securities commented; “A less exceptional US combined with a more confrontational trade policy may drive global investors to diversify away from USD-denominated assets.”

According to ING; “Look out for any updates on US-China trade talks. Any good news is probably a dollar positive in the current environment.”

The Euro-Zone Sentix investor confidence index improved to 0.2 for June from -8.1 the previous month and above consensus forecasts of -5.3.

Sentix commented; “There are signs of an upturn for the economy in the eurozone and Germany in June. The increase of +10.5 points in the expected values in particular gives cause for hope. Euroland is benefiting from a recovery in Germany.”

According to Scotiabank there is scope for further hawkish ECB rhetoric; “We see scope for EUR strength on the back of relative central bank policy as markets fade their expectations for cuts.”

Looking at the US outlook Sentix noted; “The shock caused by the tariff policy in the US is slowly subsiding. Situation scores in particular are rising strongly for the US economy. Expectations are also recovering by +11.0 points, but remain negative in absolute terms.”


It added; “Overall, the global economy is breathing a sigh of relief, even if the US tariff shock has not yet been fully absorbed.”

The US NFIB small-business confidence index improved to 98.8 for May from 95.8 the previous month and above expectations of 96.0.

According to the survey, expected business conditions and sales expectations contributed the greatest to the rise in the Index. The Uncertainty Index rose 2 points from April to 94.

ING notes that the Treasury will be holding the latest 3-year bond auction on Wednesday.

It added; “A poor auction could rekindle the weaker dollar story, where a pair like USD/JPY could lead the dollar lower in a more difficult environment for risk.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts