Euro to Dollar Price Forecast: EUR Surges to 43-Month Best vs USD

June 12, 2025 - Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Price Forecast: EUR Surges to 43-Month Best vs USD

The US dollar has been subjected to renewed selling on Thursday while the Euro has gained support on major crosses. Trade developments have not benefitted the dollar, and markets expect that pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates will intensify.

After breaking above 1.1500, the Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate jumped to highs near 1.1590 and the strongest level since November 2021.

According to ING; “Our baseline remains that this 1.1550/1600 area is the top of a trading range – unless those rate differentials can have a big move in favour of the euro.”

Nevertheless, it added; “But we do note the prevailing narrative on de-dollarisation and would not advocate aggressively fighting this dollar bear trend at these levels.”

According to SocGen; “If the pair establishes beyond 1.1570/1.1610, the up move may extend towards projections of 1.1780 and 1.1885."

Commerzbank notes the risk of increased trade tensions; “This is bad news for the dollar, especially as the reaction pattern of USD exchange rates appears increasingly asymmetrical. On the one hand, positive developments are hardly supporting them. On the other hand, stronger rate cut speculation since yesterday has weighed on the dollar.”

It added; “The downside potential in EUR/USD is therefore likely to remain limited for the time being, whereas there is still plenty of scope to the upside."


The dollar index is trading below 98.0 and very close to the April 21st low.

MUFG commented; “The dollar move lower remains modest though although we would expect that to change and for the sell-off to intensify if the DXY index was to breach the 97.921 low from 21st April, an obvious key support.”

Markets are continuing to monitor trade developments and the outlook for interest rates.

There was disappointment that President Trump announced that tariffs on Chinese imports would be set at 55%.

The Administration also stated that it would make final tariff offer within the next two weeks.

ING commented; “The dollar has also failed to enjoy any bounce on the news of progress in US-China trade negotiations. That may be because details of the deal have been very vague, but yesterday US President Trump also said that the Commerce Department would be sending out letters in the next week or so dictating 'take it or leave it' trade deals to the 20 or so countries currently involved in negotiations.

It added; “This keeps the risk of a 9 July cliff-edge jump in tariffs on the table – again seen as a dollar negative.”


MUFG also pointed to Trump’s statement; “This of course only adds to confusion and uncertainty but the comment certainly points to renewed escalation in trade tensions ahead of the official deadline date set back in April.”

According to Rodrigo Catril, senior currency strategist at National Australia Bank; "It's hard to tell whether there is a masterplan behind this, but common sense would suggest that President Trump is trying to create a level of urgency in terms of trade negotiations."

Commerzbank sees an important risk that tensions will increase further; "The likelihood is increasing that the other US trading partners will also be unable to secure any concessions on the reciprocal tariffs announced at the beginning of April by the end of the 90-day-pause - no matter how hard they try.

Geo-political tensions will also be monitored closely with a surge in crude oil prices on Middle East tensions as the US withdrew some embassy staff from Iraq.

ING commented; “Higher oil prices are a dollar positive by way of the US comparative advantage in energy independence. Any further developments here could see the dollar favoured for its liquidity.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts