Euro to Dollar Tech Forecast: 1.1480 Key Level to Watch say UoB

June 17, 2025 - Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Tech Forecast: 1.1480 Key Level to Watch say UoB

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) has been unable to make a fresh challenge on 1.1600 and consolidated around 1.1560 as tight ranges prevailed.

ING commented; “with the FOMC announcement looming tomorrow, there could be more cautiousness in chasing moves in either direction in USD crosses.”

According to UoB; “upward momentum has slowed somewhat, and a breach of 1.1480 would suggest that EUR may trade in a range instead of rising further.”

Scotiabank still sees scope for further EUR/USD gains; “the trend is bullish, as EUR’s latest multi-year highs have followed a clear trend of higher lows and higher highs following its February bottom. Major resistance appears limited ahead of the 1.1680-1.1700 area.”

It expects further near-term trading in a 1.15-1.16 range.

The Euro maintains a solid tone in global markets amid further expectations of a strategic shift into the single currency.

In this context, on a longer-term basis, Danske Bank maintains a negative dollar stance; “De-dollarisation trends are accelerating, as central banks shift to gold and institutional investors reduce USD exposure. We see any USD strength as a selling opportunity and maintain a 12M EUR/USD target of 1.20.”


Middle East tensions will continue to be monitored very closely, especially given the high degree of uncertainty over the US Administration stance.

MUFG noted the importance of oil prices; “As we have seen so far market participants are willing to look through uncertainty triggered by the heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East so long as the conflict does not directly restrict global supply chains and oil supply.”

There are uncertainties over the dollar’s reaction function, especially given uncertainty over the potential for defensive dollar demand given evidence of greater doubts over the US currency.

US retail sales declined 0.9% for May compared with expectations of a 0.5% fall and there was a downward revision to April, but a 0.4% gain in the control group.

The Federal Reserve will announce its latest policy decision on Wednesday with strong expectations that rates will be held at 4.50%. Markets will monitor rhetoric from Chair Powell closely.

According to Scotiabank; “The outlook for relative central bank policy will remain a focus as markets assess the ECB’s gradual shift to neutral and contrast it with the Fed.”

Ronald Temple, chief market strategist at Lazard commented; "Markets anticipate two Fed rate cuts this year, but I expect zero."


He added; "Investors will carefully examine the Summary of Economic Projections for signs of potential policy easing with the dot plot and macro forecasts being focal points. I expect another shift in the dot plot toward fewer rate cuts."

Such a shift could trigger short-term dollar buying.

According to Danske Bank; “Escalating conflict between Israel and Iran adds another layer of uncertainty over the already blurry macro outlook. We doubt Powell will provide strong forward guidance this week but still think the Fed will cut two more times this year and three times in 2026.”

Earlier, the German ZEW economic sentiment index strengthened sharply to 47.5 for June from 25.2 previously and well above consensus forecasts of 35.0 previously.

ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach noting a stronger trend in consumer spending and investment added; “This development also seems to strengthen the assessment that the fiscal policy measures announced by the new German government can provide a boost to the economy. Combined with the recent interest rate cuts by the ECB, this could bring economic stagnation in Germany, which has lasted for almost three years, to an end.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts