Pound-to-Dollar Forecast: GBP Steady despite Strong US Jobs Data

July 3, 2025 - Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound-to-Dollar Forecast: GBP Steady despite Strong US Jobs Data

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate trended mostly flat on Thursday as the US released its latest non-farm payrolls index and unemployment rate.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3658, down roughly 0.3% from the start of Thursday’s session.

The US Dollar (USD) strengthened on Thursday, buoyed by unexpectedly upbeat labour market data that helped reinforce confidence in the resilience of the US economy.

June’s non-farm payrolls figure exceeded expectations, climbing to 147,000 new jobs versus forecasts of a sharp drop to 110,000, up from May’s revised reading of 144,000.

Adding further support, the US unemployment rate defied predictions of a rise to 4.3%, instead dipping to 4.1% from 4.2%.

The combination of stronger-than-expected job creation and a lower jobless rate provided a boost to the US Dollar during Thursday’s European session, as investors took the data as a sign that the labour market remains on solid footing.

The Pound (GBP) regained some composure on Thursday, stabilising after a volatile mid-week session, marked by political tensions in Westminster.


Sterling had come under pressure on Wednesday amid speculation surrounding Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ standing within the Labour government.

Market nerves were heightened after Prime Minister Keir Starmer refrained from offering a clear endorsement during Prime Minister’s Questions, sparking a sell-off in UK bonds and dragging GBP lower.

However, investor sentiment improved on Thursday following renewed backing for Reeves from Starmer, helping to calm concerns.

As gilt yields eased from their recent spike, the Pound found renewed support and edged higher against several of its counterparts on Thursday.

Looking ahead to Friday’s European session, the GBP/USD exchange rate is likely to remain range-bound, with limited data and subdued trading conditions offering little direction.

With no major UK economic releases scheduled and US markets closed for the Independence Day holiday, both the Pound and the US Dollar may struggle to find meaningful momentum.

In the absence of fresh catalysts, market sentiment will likely take centre stage.


However, with thin trading volumes expected, volatility may be muted. As a result, the GBP/USD exchange rate is likely to fluctuate within a narrow band as the week comes to a close.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts