Euro to Dollar Forecast: Range Between "1.1700 Support and 1.1780 Resistance"

July 27, 2025 - Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: Range Between "1.1700 Support and 1.1780 Resistance"

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate failed to challenge the 1.1800 level on Thursday and drifted lower to around 1.1720 after the New York open.

Markets remain wary of trade developments and there has also been position adjustment ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve policy decision.

President Trump has continued to press the Fed to cut interest rates, but is currently favouring a more indirect path to undermine Chair Powell rather than repeating the direct threat to have him sacked.

Assuming rates are held at 4.5% next week, attacks could intensify again.

According to Scotiabank; “We look to a near-term range bound between 1.1700 support and 1.1780 resistance.”

UoB added; “Negative divergence remains apparent, this, combined with slowing momentum, indicates EUR could pull back further. However, any decline is likely part of a lower range of 1.1715/1.1775.”

Markets will continue to watch trade developments closely with a focus on a potential EU-US deal.


There will be speculation that a deal will be released over the weekend and this may discourage Euro selling into Friday’s close.

ING sees scope for EUR/USD to challenge 1.1830 and potentially hit 45-month highs, at least temporarily if there is a deal.

The bank did, however, add; “All of the above is contingent on US-EU trade discussions evolving smoothly – with the auto sector, for instance, included in a potential 15% baseline tariff rate.”

There are strong expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates at 4.50% at next week’s policy meeting.

President Trump has continued to call for lower interest rates with the latest salvo coming after a tour of the Federal Reserve building renovation project with Chair Powell.

Attempts to undermine Powell on costs backfired, but there is still a risk that cost overruns will be used as a pretext to have him dismissed.

Markets will be focussing on the potential for a shift in language in the statement and whether there are formal dissents from Bowman and Waller.


According to Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities; "The market's focus is firmly on next week's Fed meeting. We expect Powell to repeat a patient, data-dependent policy outlook with flexibility but (he) is unlikely to commit to cuts."

Commerzbank commented; “For truly new impetus, the market will now wait for next week's Fed meeting and watch closely to see to what extent the pressure on the Fed is reflected in its voting behaviour and official communications."

At this stage, ANZ strategists expect 25 basis-point cuts in September and December.

According to the bank; "Were it not for tariff uncertainty, we judge that rate cuts would already have resumed."

It added; "The labour market is weakening, service price disinflation is well established, demand growth has slowed and there is no discernible evidence that higher tariffs are spilling into a broader inflation problem."

Expectations of further ECB interest rate cuts have faded further which will provide net Ero support.

Nordea commented; “The ECB kept rates unchanged and while uncertainty remains high, the central bank gave no hints that it would be preparing for another rate cut. Market rates rose in response. We expect no further cuts from the central bank.”

Scotiabank noted that yields have moved in the Euro’s favour; “Interest rate differentials remain supportive, providing a fundamental basis for the EUR’s recovery of its early July losses, as markets reprice their expectations for ECB rate cuts in the aftermath of Thursday’s decision.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts