Euro to Dollar Price Forecast: "EUR/USD Bearish Momentum" to Continue

Published: Thursday, 31 July 2025 08:00 BST - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Price Forecast: "EUR/USD Bearish Momentum" to Continue

The Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) was blocked around 1.1570 on Wednesday and dipped to 5-week lows below 1.1500 following the latest US data with a slide to 1.1470.

The dollar gained fresh traction after the latest data releases while the Euro remained vulnerable.

ING still sees scope for further EUR/USD losses; “The stark divergence in growth news between the US and Europe should underpin EUR/USD bearish momentum in our view, and there is a good chance of a break below 1.150.”

Scotiabank commented; “the trend is bearish following Tuesday’s break of the 50 day MA (1.0932) trend support level.”

It added; “We look to additional support in the mid-1.14s and see the near-term range bound between 1.15 support and 1.16 resistance.”

According to UoB; “The decline appears to be overstretched, and there are tentative signs of stabilisation. To put it another way, EUR is unlikely to weaken much further.”

US GDP recorded an annualised growth rate of 3.0% for the second quarter of 2025 following a 0.5% contraction for the first quarter and compared with consensus forecasts of 2.5% growth.


Consumer spending growth was subdued at 1.4% from 0.5% previously, but inevitably there was a big turnaround in the trade component following the first-quarter import surge ahead of impending tariffs.

Elsewhere, ADP reported an increase in private payrolls of 104,000 for July compared with consensus forecasts of around 80,000 while the June figure was revised to show a decline of 23,000 compared with the flash reading of a 33,000 decline.

There are very strong expectations that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates at 4.50% today and the data will certainly not convince the central bank that interest rates need to be cut.

The focus will be on the vote split.

According to BNPP; “The statement should be little changed, with Chair Powell’s press conference closely resembling his appearance in June. Two dissents seem likely at the meeting: Governors Bowman and Waller, the recent Republican appointees.”

Commonwealth Bank of Australia senior economist Kristina Clifton commented; "While dissenting isn't uncommon, the dissents at this week's meeting may get more focus because Trump has made it crystal clear that he thinks the FOMC should be lowering interest rates."

She added; "Dissents at this meeting may be judged as political and put a dent in perceptions of the FOMC's independence."


BNPP added; “We think the FOMC walks a narrow, arduous and dimly lit path between two yawning chasms: to one side, the risk of a serious US economic downturn, and to the other, the risk of long-term entrenchment of high inflation into the economy.”

According to the bank; “A misstep along the path, by cutting rates too late or too soon, could commit the economy to one of these costly and nonlinear risks. The best route forward is unclear and different FOMC members now have increasingly polarized views on how to proceed.”

The Euro-Zone reported GDP growth of 0.1% for the second quarter, marginally above consensus forecasts of no change, but weaker than the US data.

Scotiabank sees mixed influences on the Euro. It noted; “The EUR is vulnerable from a sentiment and positioning perspective, as CFTC data reveal a sizeable bullish position among the speculative community.”

It did, however, add; “Fundamentals remain supportive for the EUR however, as the outlook for relative central bank policy favors a narrowing in deeply negative German-US yield spreads.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts