Pound to Dollar Price Forecast: GBP Consolidates "Hefty Gains"

Modified: Tuesday, 5 August 2025 14:30 BST - Written by Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Price Forecast: GBP Consolidates "Hefty Gains"

Short-term technical indicators suggest the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is attempting to consolidate its recent rebound, with key resistance and support levels now in focus.

According to Scotiabank analysts, “GBP/USD short-term technicals: Neutral - Sterling is also consolidating the hefty gains from Friday’s intraday low versus the USD just below the 100-day MA resistance at 1.3348.

"Friday’s bullish outside range reversal should mark a major low/reversal for the pound and bring a halt to the July slide.

"Support is 1.3250/55. Above 1.3355/65 targets a push higher to the low 1.34 area at least.”

Their view underscores the importance of the 1.3250–1.3355 range as a near-term pivot zone for the GBP/USD exchange rate, with any sustained break above resistance opening the door to a recovery towards the 1.3400 level.

GBP/USD was subdued on Tuesday, as cautious market sentiment drove demand for safe-haven assets like the 'Greenback'.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3289, largely unchanged from Tuesday’s opening levels.


The US Dollar (USD) attracted support on Tuesday as growing risk aversion prompted investors to shift towards safer assets.

This latest wave of caution stemmed from uncertainty surrounding potential US secondary sanctions targeting countries that continue to trade with Russia.

Worries that such actions could disrupt ongoing trade negotiations between the US and China contributed to the cautious tone.

However, gains for the ‘Greenback’ were kept in check by ongoing political uncertainty at home, after President Trump abruptly dismissed the official in charge of compiling the monthly payroll report – a key dataset for markets and the Federal Reserve.

The move added a layer of volatility to an already fragile backdrop, limiting aggressive positioning in the US Dollar.

Although the Pound (GBP) struggled against the US Dollar, it fared better against other major currencies, aided by an encouraging revision to the UK’s services PMI.

The final reading for July showed modest improvement over the flash estimate. While the pace of growth slowed from June, businesses remained upbeat, with forward-looking optimism rising on the month.


The dip in new orders due to subdued client confidence didn’t weigh too heavily on the report’s overall tone, which suggested a steady, if unspectacular, start to the third quarter.

Looking ahead, the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate could see limited movement heading into Thursday, as traders await the Bank of England’s (BoE) latest interest rate decision.

A 25 basis point cut is widely expected, but the real driver for Sterling will be the BoE’s forward guidance. If Governor Andrew Bailey signals more cuts are likely later in the year, the Pound could slip further.

Until then, US Dollar movement may be influenced by comments from Federal Reserve officials Susan Collins and Lisa Cook on Wednesday. Should either policymaker express concern about the recent weak US jobs data and suggest the Fed could shift to a more supportive stance, the Greenback may falter – opening the door for a potential GBP/USD rebound.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts