Pound to Dollar Price News, Forecast: GBP Firm Ahead of Key US and UK Data

Modified: Monday, 11 August 2025 15:25 BST - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Price News, Forecast: GBP Firm Ahead of Key US and UK Data

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate started the week on a quiet note, with traders awaiting a series of high-impact economic releases from both the UK and US.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3449, unchanged from Monday’s opening levels.

The Pound (GBP) traded within a tight range on Monday as investors looked ahead to key domestic data later in the week.

The UK’s latest jobs report and the preliminary estimate of second-quarter GDP are both due in the coming days.

These releases carry added weight following last week’s unexpectedly close vote on the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to cut interest rates.

Stronger-than-expected figures could strengthen the case of hawkish MPC members and dampen market expectations for a fourth rate cut this year.

Conversely, weaker data would likely reignite calls for additional easing in Q4, potentially erasing some of Sterling’s recent gains.


The US Dollar (USD) also saw subdued trading on Monday amid cautious optimism over a potential meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on Friday.

The prospect of dialogue helped improve risk appetite, curbing demand for safe-haven assets such as the ‘Greenback’.

That said, analysts remain doubtful that Putin will agree to any meaningful truce without significant territorial concessions.

Tuesday’s US consumer price index release is likely to be the next major driver of movement for the GBP/USD pairing.

Forecasts point to a modest acceleration in both headline and core inflation in July, to 2.8% and 3% respectively. While such results may not derail expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, they could see markets scale back predictions for further cuts later in the year, potentially lending fresh support to the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, the UK jobs report, also due Tuesday, will be closely watched for any additional signs of cooling in the labour market. Although any downside in the Pound may be limited if we see another upward revision to the prior month’s figures, as in recent months.

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John's new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way, ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts