Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: Investment Banks Broadly Positive on GBP

Modified: Monday, 11 August 2025 22:45 BST - Written by Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: Investment Banks Broadly Positive on GBP

Pound Sterling has edged higher in global markets on Monday with the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate moving above the 1.3450 level in early Europe on Monday before a retreat to 1.3420 as the U.S. currency gained some traction.

Investment banks maintain a broadly positive stance on the pair.

UoB still sees the potential for gains to 1.3515 and added; “We will maintain our view as long as 1.3345 is not breached.”

According to Scotiabank; “We see little resistance ahead of the upper 1.35 area and look to near-term support below 1.3380.”

Transatlantic data releases will be watched very closely on Tuesday.

As far as the UK is concerned, the latest labour-market data will be released at the European open.

Consensus forecasts are for the unemployment rate to hold at 4.7%, the highest reading for close to four years with a further 18,000 decline in payrolls following the flash reading of a 41,000 slide for June.


ING commented; “There are admittedly risks of a softer-than-expected initial print followed by an upward revision in the coming months, as we've seen in recent instances. Markets may treat those with a bit more caution for this reason, as well as the BoE’s lack of concern about jobs.”

The US will also release the latest inflation data on Tuesday. Consensus forecasts are for headline prices to increase 0.2% on the month with the annual rate nudging higher to 2.8% from 2.7% with 0.3% increase in core prices and a slight increase in the annual rate to 3.0% from 2.9%.

According to MUFG; “The CPI data is hugely important given the tariff risks to inflation. The June CPI data did reveal a pick-up in goods inflation and if those signs are more apparent it will complicate the Fed’s decision on whether to cut in September following the weak jobs report last week.

The bank noted that there will be lags in tariffs having an impact on inflation.

It added; “Upside inflation risks will persist. Nonetheless, these lags may offer a window for Fed easing and the weak jobs data will likely see a Fed cut delivered in September.”

Fed interpretation of the data will be watched closely.

Over the weekend, Governor Bowman stated that policy should move towards a neutral level and she backed rate cuts at all remaining Fed meetings this year.


The latest UK GDP data is due for release on Thursday. According to ING; “second-quarter GDP should show the downward tariff distortion observed in many countries. We expect a 0.2% quarter-on-quarter print, slightly above the consensus 0.1%.”

Scotiabank maintains a positive stance on the Pound; “The outlook for relative central bank policy is supportive of GBP strength as markets fade their expectations for BoE easing while building in a lower rate path for the Fed.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts