Pound to Dollar Mid-Week Forecast: 1.3500 Support and 1.3620 Resistance

Modified: Wednesday, 13 August 2025 17:00 BST - Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Mid-Week Forecast: 1.3500 Support and 1.3620 Resistance

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) hit a three-week high on Wednesday, marking the best transfer conversion for buyers, as markets bet on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts amid increasing pressure on the bank.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD traded at $1.3570, up more than 0.5% on the day.

The US Dollar (USD) weakened on Wednesday as markets increased their bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut, while fresh political scrutiny cast doubt over the central bank’s independence.

The ‘Greenback’ had already lost ground on Tuesday after US inflation data showed headline CPI holding steady at 2.7% in July, missing forecasts for a rise to 2.8%.

Later, US President Donald Trump reignited his criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, calling for an immediate rate cut and suggesting he might ‘allow a major lawsuit against Powell to proceed’.

Adding to the pressure, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday night that he believes the Fed should deliver a larger-than-expected 50-basis-point cut in September.

The combination of rate cut speculation and concerns over the Fed’s political independence drove USD lower as Wednesday’s European session got underway.


The Pound (GBP) traded steadily on Wednesday amid an absence of fresh UK economic releases and as markets looked ahead to Thursday’s key GDP report.

Sterling retained some of the momentum built earlier in the week after Tuesday’s upbeat employment figures. The data indicated that while the UK labour market continues to ease, the slowdown is proving more gradual than anticipated.

This resilience supported a shift in interest rate expectations for the Bank of England (BoE), following last week’s hawkish divide within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).

Looking ahead, all eyes are on Thursday’s UK GDP release, with the preliminary second-quarter reading set to take centre stage for GBP investors.

Analysts anticipate a steep loss of momentum in the British economy, with growth expected to slow sharply from 0.7% in Q1 to just 0.1% in Q2. A result in line with forecasts would likely drag Sterling lower, fuelling worries over the UK’s economic resilience and reviving speculation about additional Bank of England rate cuts.

Across the Atlantic, the US Dollar may find direction from July’s producer price index figures. A modest uptick in producer inflation could offer some support to the ‘Greenback’ against a backdrop of mounting Fed rate cut bets.

However, if US initial jobless claims climb again, it may undermine any gains and add to the downward pressure on USD.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast

“GBP/USD’s latest advance has decisively broken above the 50-day moving average at 1.3503, with the rally now testing late-July highs in the upper 1.35s,” FX strategists at Scotiabank noted.

“Momentum is firmly bullish, with the RSI climbing above 60, and we see limited medium-term resistance until the early-July peak in the upper 1.37s,” the bank added.

“In the near term, we expect the pair to trade in a range between 1.3500 as support and 1.3620 as resistance,” Scotiabank concluded.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts