GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Rangebound before Ukraine Talks

Modified: Monday, 18 August 2025 16:00 BST - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Rangebound before Ukraine Talks

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate traded sideways at the start of the week, holding just below last week’s best levels.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was hovering near $1.3544, almost unchanged from Monday’s opening levels.

The US Dollar (USD) struggled for direction on Monday as a cautiously upbeat market outlook curbed safe-haven demand.

Investors appeared encouraged by signs of progress in peace negotiations, with US President Donald Trump due to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, alongside European leaders, in Washington later this week.

This follows Trump’s high-profile meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska, where Trump appeared to support Moscow’s proposed peace framework that would see Ukraine concede significant territory.

Although the lack of immediate ceasefire disappointed markets, reports suggesting Russia may accept US security guarantees for Ukraine helped sustain hopes for a future peace agreement.

The Pound (GBP) traded sideways at the start of the week, with the currency taking a breather after marching higher through the first half of August.


The Pound’s recent momentum has been underpinned by hawkish signals from the Bank of England (BoE) alongside stronger-than-expected UK economic data earlier this month.

But with fresh UK data absent on Monday – and some investors taking profit on Friday – the Pound’s momentum has cooled.

GBP/USD Forecast: UK CPI To Provide Next Impetus

Looking forward, attention will turn to the UK’s latest inflation figures due on Wednesday, with little in the calendar for either currency on Tuesday.

Economists expect CPI to have edged higher in July, rising from 3.6% to 3.7%.

Should inflation climb again, it would likely bolster expectations of further BoE hawkishness and offer Sterling fresh support in mid-week trade.

For the US Dollar, focus will shift towards the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole symposium.


If policymakers hint at a softer stance on monetary policy, the USD could remain under pressure through the week.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts