GBP/USD Forecast: Dollar Resilient Despite Jobs Shock

Modified: Tuesday, 9 September 2025 17:34 BST - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Dollar Resilient Despite Jobs Shock

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate ticked lower on Tuesday following the publication of the latest non-farm payrolls annual revision from the US.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3526, down roughly 0.2% from the start of Tuesday’s session.

The US Dollar (USD) advanced on Tuesday, firming against most major peers following the publication of the latest annual revision to non-farm payrolls.

The updated figures showed that the economy generated 911,000 fewer jobs in the twelve months to March than previously thought, a result that highlighted ongoing weakness in the US labour market.

Despite the downbeat implications, the ‘Greenback’ proved resilient. The revision did little to alter expectations around the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook, with interest rate cut bets largely unchanged. As a result, USD maintained its footing and even built momentum against several counterparts during the session.

The Pound (GBP) was able to hold its ground against most major rivals on Tuesday, even in the absence of fresh UK economic data.

With no significant domestic releases to provide direction, Sterling’s movement was largely muted through the session.

Instead, investors shifted their focus towards upcoming commentary from Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden. Should Breeden strike a dovish tone in her remarks, expectations for earlier policy easing are likely to intensify, a development that could place Sterling under renewed pressure.

Looking ahead to Wednesday’s European session, the spotlight is expected to fall on the latest US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for August, which could set the tone for movement in the GBP/USD exchange rate.

Forecasts point to a notable slowdown, with the index predicted to ease from 0.9% to 0.3%.

Should the figures confirm a loss of momentum in producer prices, the US Dollar may come under pressure as markets scale back expectations for further tightening from the Federal Reserve, creating potential headwinds for the currency in mid-week trade.

In contrast, the UK’s economic calendar is once again devoid of high-impact releases. This lack of domestic drivers will likely leave Sterling at the mercy of broader market trends. As a result, GBP movement is expected to remain closely tied to shifts in risk appetite and external factors.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts