Pound to Dollar Forecast: Analysts Put 1.3445 as Key to GBP/USD Stability

Modified: Tuesday, 30 September 2025 12:30 BST - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: Analysts Put 1.3445 as Key to GBP/USD Stability

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate outlook hinges on jobs data and politics. ING sees a move above 1.35 if US employment figures disappoint, while UoB warns that only a breach of 1.3445 would confirm stability. MUFG stresses that Friday’s payrolls report could extend the dollar rebound if labour-market strength forces a hawkish shift in Fed expectations.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Recovery from 7-Week Lows

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate dipped to 7-week lows just below 1.3330 last week before a recovery to 1.3440 on Monday.

UoB commented; “Although downward momentum is starting to slow, we will maintain the same view as long as 1.3445 holds.

It added; “A breach of 1.3445 would indicate that the weakness in GBP from more than a week ago has stabilised.”

ING noted the importance of US jobs data; “So far, support has held at 1.3300 for cable. And US jobs data will help determine whether we end the week over 1.35.”

There will be labour-market releases from Tuesday to Friday, culminating in the pivotal labour-market report.

The data will frame the debate surrounding inflation, unemployment and labour markets.

Rabobank commented; “This week will be important for shoring up market judgements about where the balance of risks lays between the price stability mandate and the employment mandate. 2.7% inflation is quite a bit higher than the 2% target, but the Fed has already cut interest rates four times – including a 50bp cut in September last year.”

It added; “Does this suggest that – like the household sector – the FOMC is also more sensitive to labour market deterioration than they are to stubbornly high inflation?”

According to MUFG; “The release of the latest nonfarm payrolls report for September at the end of the week will be important in determining whether the US dollar’s recent rebound will extend further in the near-term.”

It added; “if employment growth picks up helping to close the divergence with stronger economic growth, then it could trigger a bigger hawkish repricing of Fed rate cut expectations and extend the US dollar’s recent rebound.”

US political developments will also be important this week with government funding due to expire at the end of Tuesday.

President Trump is due to meet with Republican and Democrat congressional leaders on Monday in an attempt to prevent a shutdown.

According to ING; “One additional event risk this week is a US government shutdown on Tuesday evening. That's probably a mild dollar negative if it happens, but it would look unlikely to last long if it did occur.”

ING also looks at the potential political drivers for the Pound with the Labour Party conference in Liverpool; “If sterling can survive that party conference unscathed, then presumably more rhetoric from Bank of England hawks later in the week – including Governor Andrew Bailey – could provide sterling with a little more support.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts