GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Rangebound as US Jobs Data Fails to Lift Dollar

Modified: Tuesday, 30 September 2025 23:30 BST - Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Rangebound as US Jobs Data Fails to Lift Dollar

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate was muted on Tuesday as the US released its latest JOLTs job openings and the UK published its latest GDP reading.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3444, virtually unchanged from the start of Tuesday’s session.

The US Dollar (USD) came under pressure on Tuesday, slipping against several major peers despite the release of stronger-than-expected labour market data.

August’s JOLTs job openings surprised to the upside, rising from a upwardly revised 7.208 million to 7.227 million, slightly above the 7.2 million forecast.

However, the upbeat figures failed to translate into meaningful support for the ‘Greenback’.

Investor caution surrounding the risk of a potential US government shutdown kept USD exchange rates on the back foot throughout Tuesday’s European session.

The Pound (GBP) traded in a subdued manner on Tuesday, showing little clear direction against its major peers.

Sterling received only limited support from the release of the UK’s latest GDP data, which indicated a slower-than-expected pace of economic contraction.

The year-on-year growth figure for Q2 2025 fell from 1.7% to 1.4%, slightly outperforming forecasts that had predicted a drop to 1.2%.

Although the reading suggested some resilience in the UK economy, it was insufficient to spark a meaningful rally in the Pound.

As such, GBP exchange rates remained largely contained, weighed down by ongoing concerns over the broader economic outlook.

GBP/USD Forecasts: PMIs in Focus

Looking ahead to Wednesday’s European session, the GBP/USD exchange rate is likely to be influenced by the latest manufacturing PMI releases from both the US and the UK.

In the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to show a modest uptick, though it is still forecast to remain in contraction territory (a figure below 50).

If the data meets expectations, it could weigh on the US Dollar and limit its mid-week gains.

For the Pound, the UK will release its S&P Global manufacturing PMI.

While this report typically carries less influence than the UK’s services index, the sector is also forecast to remain firmly in contraction.

A weaker-than-expected reading could underscore ongoing challenges in UK manufacturing, potentially placing pressure on Sterling during the mid-week European session.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts