Euro to Dollar Forecast: ING Eyes 1.180 Test as Shutdown Risks Mount

Modified: Tuesday, 30 September 2025 23:30 BST - Written by Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: ING Eyes 1.180 Test as Shutdown Risks Mount

The Euro (EUR) to Dollar (USD) exchange rate edged higher as softer US confidence data and fears of a government shutdown weighed on the US currency.

Foreign exchange analysts at ING see scope for a test of 1.180 in the coming days, while UBS maintains that buying EUR/USD on dips remains the right strategy with 75bp of Fed cuts expected by end-2025.

Credit Agricole, meanwhile, warns that a shutdown could delay key data and add to downside risks for the US economy.

EUR/USD Forecasts: Edges Higher

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate held above 1.1700 on Tuesday and settled close to 1.1750 after the US data releases.

According to ING; “The looming US government shutdown is raising some upside risks for EUR/USD, which may test 1.180 in the next couple of days.”

UBS commented; “our economists expect data to clearly allow for 75bp of Fed cuts by end-2025, suggesting that buying EURUSD on dips is still the right strategy.”

ING expects data will dominate; “the short-term fate of EUR/USD is predominantly an extension of US macro.”

As far US data releases are concerned, the latest JOLTS data recorded that job openings were little changed at 7.23mn for August from 7.21mn the previous month and slightly above consensus forecasts of 7.19mn.

Consumer confidence retreated to 94.2 for September from a revised 97.8 in August and below consensus forecasts of 96.0.

There was a small decline in the expectations component with a larger retreat for the current conditions component.

Conference Board Senior Economist Stephanie Guichard commented; "The present situation component registered its largest drop in a year. Consumers' assessment of business conditions was much less positive than in recent months, while their appraisal of current job availability fell for the ninth straight month to reach a new multiyear low. This is consistent with the decline in job openings.”

She added; “Expectations also weakened in September, but to a lesser extent. Consumers were a bit more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions but optimism about future income increased."

Markets were wary over the threat of a US government shutdown, especially given the risk of a negative economic impact.

There are also concerns that the shutdown would trigger disruption to economic data with the potential for Friday’s scheduled labour-market data to be postponed.

Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at Scope Markets commented; “For markets, this means trading in the near term without one of the most important indicators of U.S. economic health."

Credit Agricole added; “A potential government shutdown could delay some key data releases and may further have a non-negligible negative impact on the US economy and markets.”

As far as the Euro-Zone is concerned, the headline German inflation rate increased to 2.4% for September from 2.2% previously and above consensus forecasts of 2.3%.

Credit Agricole commented; “We expect the Governing Council members to reiterate that the outlook for both Eurozone inflation and the ECB policy outlook is balanced.”

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John's new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way, ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts