Euro to Dollar Forecast: Data Blackout Keeps EUR/USD Near 1.17

Modified: Sunday, 5 October 2025 22:30 BST - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: Data Blackout Keeps EUR/USD Near 1.17

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) held steady near 1.1740 after a volatile session that saw the pair test support below 1.1700.

Analysts warn that calm trading could give way to sharp moves amid uncertainty over delayed US data and rate cut expectations.

EUR/USD Forecasts: Support Below 1.17

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate dipped sharply to test support below 1.1700 in US trading on Thursday before a recovery to near 1.1740 on Friday.

According to UoB; “There has been no significant shift in either downward or upward momentum, and we continue to expect range-trading today, most likely within a range of 1.1690/1.1750.”

The EUR/USD has been held in narrow ranges, but the underlying environment remains notably unstable with volatility liable to explode at any time.

The first Friday of the month is usually dominated by the US employment report, but the US government shutdown means that this data is unlikely to be released.

MUFG commented; “The government shutdown makes it highly unlikely that we will get the non-farm payrolls report today – since the shutdown began there has been no formal confirmation – which means this week will come to an end with shutdown politics in the US in focus.”

ING added; “the delay in big US data releases, such as today's US jobs report, further postpones forming a clear view on the friction between sticky inflation and a softening labour market. Instead, the world is left to watch in wonder at the ongoing AI rally.”

Equity markets have posted further gains with further gains in US tech stocks and a wider advance in European equities.

Elsewhere, oil prices are close to 4-month lows while European gas prices have also declined.

ING commented; “Lower energy prices are good news for the euro. The euro's terms of trade (export less import prices) are towards the higher levels of the year as both crude oil and natural gas prices soften. This will help the euro's valuation metrics.”

Although Wall Street tech stocks have posted further gains, there are doubts whether this will be dollar supportive if global investors hedge their exposure to US assets.

Macquarie global FX and rates strategist Thierry Wizman commented; "I think foreign investors are still inclined to hedge away their dollar exposure."

He added; "So they will come out again at some point in the next few weeks, you're going to see another round of dollar hedging by foreign institutions."

Markets remain extremely confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again at the October meeting with close to a 90% chance of another move in December.

A key issue will be whether these cuts undermine the dollar.

Rabobank commented; “Since there is already a lot of easing in the price, it is likely therefore that progressive Fed rate cuts will lack the ability to significantly weaken the value of the greenback from current levels.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts