Euro to US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Edges Towards 1.1650

Modified: Monday, 27 October 2025 23:30 BST - Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Euro to US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Edges Towards 1.1650

The Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) found support above 1.1600 on Monday and advanced to near 1.1650 in European trading, although the dollar was still broadly resilient.

UoB commented; “The current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase. For the time being, we expect EUR to trade between 1.1585 and 1.1680.”

Although ING expected EUR/USD would have traded higher, it still sees scope for limited near-term gains.

The bank maintains a year-end forecast of 1.20.

During the weekend, there were reports that US and Chinese negotiators had reached some form of agreement on the issues of TikTok, soybean purchases and tariffs.

There are also hopes that President Trump and Chinese President Xi will meet on Thursday and use the occasion to sign some of deal to de-escalate current tensions and avert a fresh jump in tariffs from November 1st.

ING commented; “Probably most important will be what China does with its planned export controls on rare earths. A prolonged delay here of, say, one year would very much be welcomed by the markets.”

The pan-European Equity market hit a record high.

According to Ray Attrill, head of foreign exchange research at National Australia Bank; "At the moment, I'd say positive risk sentiment is still, at the margin, playing negatively for the U.S. dollar."

There are very strong expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again this week with the Fed Funds rate lowered to 4.00% from 4.25% with traders expecting another cut in December.

Mahjabeen Zaman, head of foreign exchange research at ANZ commented; "Fed cuts are fully priced in for October and December meetings. So, if anything, any cautious communication from the Fed would likely be more supportive for the U.S. dollar.

The German IFO business confidence index improved to 88.4 for October from 87.7 previously and slightly above consensus forecasts.

Although current expectations edged lower, there was a significant improvement in the expectations component.

The IFO commented; “Companies remain hopeful that the economy will pick up in the coming year.

ING maintained a cautious stance; “Today's Ifo index suggests that German businesses still bank on the fiscal stimulus to save the economy, even if the economy is heading for a third consecutive year of stagnation.

It added; “With all the headwinds from trade, the exchange rate and geopolitics, it is hard to believe that today's Ifo index marks a turning point.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts