Pound to Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Steady Ahead of Fed and Trade Talks

Modified: Tuesday, 28 October 2025 10:15 BST - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Steady Ahead of Fed and Trade Talks

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) found renewed support above 1.3300 on Monday and edged toward 1.3350, with tight ranges persisting ahead of a key week for global markets. Traders are braced for pivotal events, including the Federal Reserve policy meeting and the upcoming US–China trade discussions.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Calm Before the Storm

Scotiabank noted that volatility remains unusually subdued; “Typically, these sorts of low-vol trading episodes are followed by a burst of more dynamic movement.”

It added; “We also await a break of the local range roughly bound between 1.3250 and 1.3450.”

UoB remains cautious on the outlook; “As there has been no clear breach of our ‘strong resistance’ level at 1.3385, we continue to hold the same view for now.”

Markets remain overwhelmingly confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this week and again in December.

Optimism over a potential easing of US–China trade tensions has provided some support for risk sentiment, with speculation that Washington could delay new tariff measures and restrictions on Chinese rare-earth exports.

The Pound would likely benefit if global risk appetite stays firm.

For those with upcoming US Dollar transfer or purchase needs, the week’s Fed and trade developments could trigger notable short-term volatility. You can track real-time rate movements and compare provider offers via our best exchange rates
section before key announcements.

Domestic fundamentals will also stay in focus, with the Bank of England’s policy meeting and UK Budget on November 26th approaching.

Rabobank commented; “Some members are leaning toward a cut, citing signs of weakness in the labour market, while others remain wary given inflation persistence. The swing vote lies with Governor Bailey and the centrists.”

It added; “This meeting is shaping up to be a finely balanced one. If you’re forward-looking and see wages and labour market dynamics as the key to future inflation, a 25bp cut is a defensible choice. If you’re more anchored in current inflation readings, holding rates steady may feel more prudent.”

Meanwhile, UK retail sentiment remains weak. The CBI retail sales survey edged up to –27 for October from –29, but November expectations worsened to –39.

CBI principal economist Martin Sartorius said; "Persistent uncertainty ahead of the autumn budget is deepening the strain on retailers and other distribution firms that are still grappling with the effects of last year’s fiscal decisions."

Scotiabank added; “Comments on the UK’s fiscal situation are likely to be closely scrutinised, with a focus on the specific fiscal measures being discussed ahead of the November 26 budget.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts