Euro to Dollar Price Forecast: EUR/USD Testing Key 1.15 Area

Published: Monday, 3 November 2025 14:30 BST - Written by Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Price Forecast: EUR/USD Testing Key 1.15 Area

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has failed to gain any traction in global markets and has retreated to 3-month lows just above the 1.1500 level before stabilising.

UoB sees scope for a limited correction; “While further EUR weakness is not ruled out, positive divergence is forming on momentum indicators and any decline is unlikely to threaten 1.1490 today.”

According to ING; “We suspect that 1.1500 could prove the bottom of the EUR/USD range this week, though that will require some softer US jobs data to provide some breathing space.”

On a longer-term view it added; “Market consensus is for 1.18 by year-end. We think EUR/USD could rally slightly more than that on a dovish Fed – but those views are under pressure.”

ING pointed to money-market developments as an important element for dollar strength. The Treasury is rebuilding cash reserves which is putting upward pressure on rates.

The bank added; “Tight money markets normally keep the dollar supported, and we'll be watching to see whether this difficulty in accessing dollar funding extends internationally. This would be quite EUR/USD negative if seen, but there are no signs of that yet.”

Markets also remain less confident that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again at the December meeting with traders pricing in just below a 70% chance of a further cut.

The US government shutdown will also be increasingly important for markets as the economic impact will continue to build.

The Fed will be concerned over a negative impact on the economy, but will also be aware over the high degree of uncertainty.

MUFG commented; “The longer that US government shutdown goes on the bigger the negative impact on the US economy in the near-term but Chair Powell has signalled that the Fed would be more inclined to leaves rates on hold in December if they still lack clarity on the performance of the US economy.”

There are still important underlying concerns surrounding potential changes at the Fed, especially with a new chair coming next year.

Over the weekend Treasury Secretary Bessent criticised the central bank stating that their record on inflation forecasting had been extremely poor.

He added; “we’re going to find a leader who is going to revamp the entire institution in terms of process and inner workings”.

MUFG noted the risks; “The comments highlight that potential changes to the Fed under the next Chair remain a downside risk for the US dollar next year even if they skip cutting rates in December.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts