Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Nears 1.16 on US Job Market Worries

Modified: Friday, 7 November 2025 16:30 BST - Written by Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Nears 1.16 on US Job Market Worries

The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate rebounded strongly above 1.15 after disappointing US jobs figures triggered renewed selling in the dollar.

ING analysts suggest a key low may have formed near 1.1470, though analysts warn that confirmation will depend on further clarity over the US labour market.

EUR/USD Forecasts: 1-Week Highs

The Euro moved back above the 1.1500 level against the Dollar after weak US jobs data on Thursday and made further headway on Friday with 1-week highs close to 1.1560.

According to ING; “There is a chance that EUR/USD may have established an important low at 1.1470 this week. But for a rally to unfold, we will probably need to get more clarity on the slowing US jobs market. Let's see whether intra-day support at 1.1500/1510 can now hold.”

UOB commented; “the EUR’s weakness from a week ago has stabilised, and we expect EUR to trade in a range of 1.1485/1.1610 for the time being.

Challenger reported that layoffs in October surged 175% from a year ago to 153,074, the highest October figure for 20 years. For the first 10 months of the year, layoffs increased 65% to near 1.1mn.

ING noted the weak data, but added; “with the US government shutdown ongoing, we are still in the dark about the true labour market picture.”

Jeffries economist Mohit Kumar noted the scarcity of data; “With the December Fed meeting more or less a coin toss which crucially depends on the labour market picture, the market is overreacting to any hints about the labour market.”

Markets are pricing in just over a 65% chance of a further Fed rate cut at the December meeting.

MUFG noted the impact of uncertainty; “The Fed has indicated that it would prefer to leave rates on hold in December if they are unable to gain more clarity on the health of the US economy and labour market by then.”

The US government shutdown has still not been resolved.

MUFG added; “The timing of when the record government shutdown comes to an end remains important for US dollar performance.”

The US currency will be vulnerable if there is convincing evidence of a weaker labour market.

The Euro could still face challenges surrounding the global economy with markets also digesting the outlook for US tariffs.

ING commented; “While we like the idea of a weaker dollar and a stronger EUR/USD, last night's Chinese trade data is unwelcome news. It suggests China might not have as easily diversified its exports away from the US as first thought – or at least the ex-US demand is insufficient to offset the loss of the US market. That will only add to fears of increasing Chinese pressure in European markets.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts