Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Recovers from Oversold Levels

Modified: Monday, 10 November 2025 22:45 BST - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Recovers from Oversold Levels

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) traded in a tight range on Monday, with Sterling holding steady amid renewed optimism that the ongoing US government shutdown could soon be resolved.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading near $1.3160, virtually unchanged from Monday’s opening levels.

The US Dollar (USD) lacked clear direction at the start of the week, as the US Senate narrowly passed a bill to resolve the historic government shutdown.

Although a resolution was welcomed by markets, it sparked a shift in risk sentiment. Investors scaled back their safe-haven USD exposure as the prospect of a shutdown resolution boosted risk appetite.

Despite the positive momentum, traders remained cautious, knowing that the end of the shutdown could bring a deluge of delayed federal data.

Key releases, including September’s non-farm payrolls report, could potentially increase volatility in the coming days, particularly if they alter expectations for a December Federal Reserve rate cut.

The Pound (GBP) was largely steady on Monday, buoyed by the improved market mood.

However, Sterling’s upside remained capped as lingering uncertainties surrounding the UK’s upcoming autumn budget continued to weigh on investor sentiment.

Speculation over potential tax increases and fiscal tightening dominated the narrative, overshadowing any positive drivers for the Pound.

As Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget announcement approaches, market focus is likely to remain on fiscal policy and its impact on future Bank of England (BoE) rate decisions, particularly as the fiscal statement could reveal significant shifts in economic priorities.

GBP/USD Forecast: Rising UK Jobless Rate to Dent Sterling?

Looking ahead, the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate may face renewed pressure on Tuesday, with the release of fresh UK labour market data.

September’s figures are expected to show a rise in the unemployment rate and easing wage growth, which could weigh on Sterling.

A weaker jobs report would reinforce expectations that the BoE may lower interest rates when it meets next month, adding downward pressure on GBP.

Meanwhile, developments in Washington will remain a key factor for the US Dollar.

Progress on the shutdown and any moves toward a funding agreement could support the Greenback, potentially dampening further GBP/USD upside.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts