British Pound to Euro Forecast: GBP/EUR Capped Below 1.1400

Modified: Monday, 10 November 2025 13:49 BST - Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK British Pound to Euro Forecast: GBP/EUR Capped Below 1.1400

Pound Sterling Under-Performs in Global Markets

The Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) made a modest recovery on Monday, rising to 1.1385, but was unable to break the 1.1400 resistance level.

Despite a boost in global risk appetite, driven by hopes of an end to the US government shutdown, the Pound remained under pressure, struggling to outperform other risk assets due to persistent fiscal concerns and fears of Bank of England rate cuts.

GBP/EUR Forecasts: Held Below 1.1400

There was a boost to risk appetite on Monday amid hopes that there would be an end to the US government shutdown.

The Pound was able to secure limited net support against the Euro with the Pound-Euro exchange rate securing a limited advance to 1.1385, although it was unable to challenge the 1.1400 level, and the Pound underperformed other risk assets.

Underlying confidence in the currency remained fragile amid fiscal fears and expectations that the Bank of England could cut rates this year.


ING commented; “Expect EUR/GBP to meet good demand at 0.8750/60 should it make it that low. We prefer levels above 0.88 now.”

It therefore expects selling on any move to the 1.1415 area with fresh losses to below 1.1360.

The US Senate has approved a bill which would fund the government until late January 2026, ensures back pay for federal employees and include a December vote on medical policy subsidies which was a key Democrat demand.

Danske Bank commented; “The bill now moves to the House and then to President Trump for approval. Markets seem to see short-term relief as global shares rose on optimism over the progress to end the shutdown.”

Domestically, the latest labour-market data will be released on Tuesday. Consensus forecasts are for an increase in the unemployment rate to a fresh 4-year high of 4.9% from 4.8% with payrolls data also important.

Headline earnings growth is expected to remain at 5.0% with a slowdown in the core rate to 4.6% from 4.7%.

The impact on interest rate expectations will be watched closely.

ING commented; “Feeding into the BoE story will be tomorrow's release of the September wage data. This is expected to slow further and give the BoE greater confidence that inflation is less persistent than first thought.”

According to MUFG; “The release of the latest UK labour market is expected to provide further confirmation that labour market conditions remain weak.”

It added; “We expect the BoE to resume rate cuts as soon as at the next MPC meeting in December after delivering a dovish hold this week.”

The Euro-Zone Sentix investor confidence index retreated to –7.4 for November from –5.4 previously and below expectations of –3.9.

According to Sentix; “The eurozone economy remained in a growth crisis in November. The slump is reflected in the overall index, which fell by 2.0 points to -7.4 points. Current situation and expectations indices declined at a similar rate.

It added; “Germany also slipped back into recession.”

Weak Euro-Zone data will hamper the Euro to some extent.

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TAGS: Currency Predictions Pound Euro Forecasts