Pound-to-Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Upward Momentum has Slowed"

Modified: Tuesday, 11 November 2025 08:15 BST - Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound-to-Dollar Forecast: GBP/USD Upward Momentum has Slowed"

Pound Still Vulnerable on Fundamental Grounds, GBP/USD Still Looking for Escape Velocity

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) secured a further recovery last Friday as the dollar lost ground.

It hit highs of 1.3180 in early Europe on Monday amid a jump in risk appetite before settling around 1.3160 with unease over UK fundamentals limiting the scope for further gains.

According to UoB; “Upward momentum has slowed, and today, we expect GBP to trade in range, most likely between 1.3105 and 1.3175.”

Standard Chartered commented; “GBP/USD appears technically oversold, leaving scope for a short-term corrective rebound. We see the significant resistance around 1.35.”

Risk appetite has been boosted by hopes that the US government shutdown will end following the Senate vote in favour of the latest compromise bill.

A boost to risk appetite could undermine the US currency, although there would also be an important element of relief surrounding the economy amid increased evidence that the shutdown is having a damaging impact.

ING commented; “While some might argue that the end of the shutdown could be a risk-on, dollar-negative impulse for the FX markets, its impact may be more mixed. Late last week, the dollar was under pressure on job layoffs and rhetoric that the US economy could contract in the fourth quarter should the shutdown extend.”

The University of Michigan consumer confidence index retreated to 50.3 for November from 53.6 previously. This was below expectations of 53.0 and the second-weakest reading on record.

MUFG added; “Household finances deteriorated markedly with the index also hitting a record low in November.”

According to ING market analyst Tony Sycamore; "The consumer confidence data was a shocker and pretty clear evidence that the shutdown was affecting households, so this does alleviate the damage that's been done.”

Domestically, markets will continue to monitor any hints surrounding tax measures in the November 26th budget. Fiscal policy will also feed into expectations surrounding Bank of England policy.

UK data will also be watched closely with the labour-market release on Tuesday.

Consensus forecasts are for the unemployment rate to edge higher to a fresh 4-year high of 4.9% from 4.8% while underlying earnings growth is expected to slow to 4.6% from 4.7%.

Weaker than expected data would reinforce expectations that BoE Governor Bailey will back a rate cut at the December meeting.

ING remains cautious surrounding the Pound prospects; “We still think the prospects of a December 25bp cut from the Bank of England are underpriced. The market now attaches just a 60% probability to such an outcome.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts