Euro to Dollar Rate Forecast: EUR/USD Needs "Softer Data" for 1.16+

Published: Wednesday, 12 November 2025 14:00 BST - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Rate Forecast: EUR/USD Needs "Softer Data" for 1.16+

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) briefly broke above 1.16 before steadying as investors positioned for upcoming US employment figures that could determine whether the Federal Reserve delivers another December rate cut.

Analysts, including ING and MUFG, expect further dollar softness if data confirms a slowing labour market.

EUR/USD Forecasts: 10-Day Highs

UoB commented; “The price movements have resulted in an increase in upward momentum, but it is not sufficient to indicate a sustained rise. Today, we continue to expect EUR to trade in a range, likely between 1.1560 and 1.1610.”

According to ING; “We're happy that EUR/USD is trading closer to 1.16 than 1.15, but will probably require some softer US data to justify a move well above 1.16 now.”

The bank has a year-end EUR/USD target of 1.18.

On Wednesday, the House of Representatives is due to vote on the resolution which would allow a re-opening of the government.

There are expectations that it will be passed, although the vote is liable to be close.

ING commented; “If approved, that means the US government can reopen, perhaps on Friday, and that the September NFP jobs report (potentially USD negative) can be released early next week.”

Rabobank added; “The Employment Report for September may be one of the first to be published, because it was originally scheduled for October 3, so it was likely almost or completely finished. This will be lagging data, but it could confirm the continued labor market weakness assumed by the FOMC and shown in other labor market data for September.”

On Tuesday, ADP data released data which indicated private-sector job losses of 11,000 per week during October.

MUFG commented; “The drop in the dollar underlined the sensitivity to private sector employment that could shape the NFP data to be released.”

The bank added; “The jobs data will be key to whether the Fed can continue to cut and is an important element of our view that the dollar can weaken notably as we approach the end of the year.”

At this stage, markets are pricing in around a 63% chance of a December rate cut with the dollar responding to any shift in expectations.

Euro-Zone data has not triggered any positive assessment of the economic outlook.

The German ZEW investor confidence index edged lower to 38.5 for November from 39.3 previously, but wider Euro-Zone data posted a net gain.

Danske Bank commented on the German data; “The report thus indicates that the economy is still at a weak footing and the expectation for an improvement is weakening.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts