Pound to Euro Rises on Ukraine Tensions

Modified: Wednesday, 11 February 2026 20:01 BST - Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound to Euro Rises on Ukraine Tensions

The Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) strengthened on Wednesday, with Sterling proving resilient despite lingering UK political uncertainty while renewed Russia-related tensions weighed on the single currency.

At the time of writing, GBP/EUR was trading at €1.1510, up almost 0.4% on the session.

The Pound advanced against the Euro even as doubts persisted over the stability of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership.

Pressure on Starmer has yet to fully dissipate following scrutiny over his recent decision-making, which prompted Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar to call for his resignation earlier in the week.

Although the Prime Minister has, for now, avoided an internal revolt, speculation remains that further challenges to his authority could surface in the coming weeks.

For the time being, however, the absence of fresh political escalation allowed Sterling to edge higher during Wednesday’s session.

The Euro, meanwhile, struggled amid a sparse Eurozone data calendar that left the currency exposed to geopolitical developments.

Fresh Russian strikes on Ukraine overnight prompted President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to warn that faith in diplomatic efforts was fading.

The escalation followed reports that the US is pressing Kyiv to consider a peace deal that could involve significant territorial concessions, fuelling renewed unease across European markets.

As hopes for a breakthrough dimmed once more, mounting geopolitical strain weighed on the common currency.

Later in the session, renewed strength in the US Dollar added further pressure to the Euro, reflecting the pair’s negative correlation with the Greenback.

GBP/EUR Forecast: UK GDP in Focus as Political Risks Linger

Attention now turns to the UK’s fourth-quarter GDP figures, which are likely to shape near-term direction in GBP/EUR.

Economists forecast growth of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2025, up slightly from 0.1% previously. While that would represent an improvement, the pace remains modest and may offer only limited encouragement for Sterling unless the data delivers a meaningful surprise.

Political developments will also remain closely watched. Any renewed instability surrounding Starmer’s leadership could curb Sterling’s upside potential.

For the Euro, the data calendar remains relatively light. In the absence of major releases, remarks from European Central Bank policymakers Piero Cipollone and Philip Lane could influence sentiment. Should they reinforce expectations of steady policy settings, the single currency may find some underlying support.

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TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts