Pound to Dollar Forecast: Weak US Jobs Data Lifts GBP/USD

Modified: Friday, 6 March 2026 16:31 BST - Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: Weak US Jobs Data Lifts GBP/USD

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) held above three-month lows as volatile energy markets and escalating tensions in the Middle East continued to dominate currency trading.

Sterling briefly slipped toward the 1.3300 level before rebounding to around 1.3388 (+0.23%), while the Pound to Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) strengthened to 1.1542 (+0.3%) following weaker-than-expected US jobs data. Despite the rebound, investors remain focused on oil and gas prices and the potential disruption to energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, keeping global FX markets on edge.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Recovery From 3-Month Lows

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate was unable to regain the 1.3400 level on Wednesday and retreated to near 1.3300 on Thursday before rallying to 1.3360 in choppy trading.

UoB noted the risk of a retreat to 1.3250 and added; “Overall, only a breach of 1.3450 would indicate that GBP is not weakening further.”

Scotiabank is more positive on the outlook; “the extended lower shadows on the daily charts are suggestive of persistent support as the GBP recovers from deep intraday lows.” The bank sees scope for a move above 1.3400.

Middle East developments continued to dominate with unease over energy prices underpinning the dollar, although there remained a high degree of uncertainty.

Save on Your GBP/USD Transfer

Get better rates and lower fees on your next international money transfer. Compare TorFX with top UK banks in seconds and see how much you could save.

Compare the Best GBP/USD Rates »

According to ING; “Given much uncertainty, we suspect the dollar can edge towards the top of recent ranges today.”

The bank expects a continuing focus on energy prices. Oil prices have posted renewed gains with Brent close to 19-month highs while European gas prices have also increased. Developments surrounding the straits of Hormuz and LNG facilities in Qatar will be watched very closely.

ING commented; “Investors may now be concluding that a swift resolution in the Middle East is unlikely, as reports suggesting an early negotiated settlement or US efforts to reopen the Straits of Hormuz amid an ongoing conflict appear premature.”

According to MUFG; “There remains a high level of uncertainty over the potential length of the conflict and scale of disruption to global energy supplies.”

Danske Bank considers the US response; “If pressure on oil prices does not start to ease, the US would likely consider selling strategic reserves. That will not be able to replace the oil shut in behind the Strait of Hormuz though but can help contain prices.”

According to MUFG; “A prolonged conflict would increase downside risks for the global economy and the risk of a more persistent inflation shock. Our forecasts for US dollar strength to be temporary are based on the assumption that the conflict last weeks rather months.”

US data also supported the dollar. The ISM non-manufacturing business confidence index strengthened to a 3-year high of 56.1 for February from 53.8 previously and compared with consensus forecasts of 53.5.

Deutsche Bank commented; "That backdrop of strong data meant investors kept pricing out the likelihood of an H1 rate cut from the Fed.

It added; "So clearly there’s growing scepticism that a new Chair can start cutting straight away, particularly with the data as strong as it is right now."

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John's new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way, ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts