GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Slips as US Inflation Holds Firm

Modified: Wednesday, 11 March 2026 20:31 BST - Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Slips as US Inflation Holds Firm

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate drifted lower on Wednesday following the release of the latest US inflation data.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading near $1.3392, down roughly 0.2% from the start of the session.

The US Dollar gained modest ground after the publication of the newest US consumer price index figures.

Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that headline inflation held steady at 2.4% in February, while the core rate remained unchanged at 2.5%. Both readings matched market expectations.

These figures lent the ‘Greenback’ some support as they reinforced the view that inflationary pressures in the US are proving difficult to fully tame. As a result, investors are increasingly convinced that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates at restrictive levels for longer.

Fed officials have repeatedly emphasised the importance of seeing sustained progress toward their inflation target before considering policy easing, a stance that continues to underpin the US currency.

Additional support for the Dollar came from developments in energy markets. Oil prices moved higher during Wednesday’s session, as traders remained doubtful that the International Energy Agency’s plan to release up to 400 million barrels of crude would fully offset supply disruptions linked to the effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz.

Although Sterling lost ground against the US Dollar, it performed better against several other major currencies as markets continued to reassess expectations for Bank of England policy.

Rising geopolitical tensions and higher energy costs have fuelled concerns that inflation in the UK could accelerate again, prompting investors to dial back their expectations for interest rate cuts.

Where markets had previously anticipated multiple reductions in borrowing costs over the next year, many traders are now questioning whether the Bank of England will be able to lower rates at all in 2026 if price pressures intensify.

Short-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Bailey Speech in Focus

Remarks from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey could provide fresh direction for the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate.

Investors will be watching closely for any indication that the recent spike in energy prices might influence the central bank’s policy thinking. Should Bailey hint that inflation risks could delay or halt the Bank of England’s easing cycle, Sterling may receive a boost.

At the same time, the release of the latest US labour market figures could influence the Dollar. Stronger-than-expected initial jobless claims data may reinforce confidence in the resilience of the US economy and offer further support to the currency.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts