GBP/USD Price Forecast: US Inflation Data to Drive Next Move

Modified: Friday, 10 April 2026 08:36 BST - Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK GBP/USD Price Forecast: US Inflation Data to Drive Next Move

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate moved within a narrow range on Thursday, as uncertainty surrounding the US-Iran ceasefire tempered market activity.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3407, with the pairing largely rangebound since the start of the session.

The US Dollar (USD) traded without clear direction early on Thursday, as investors weighed the durability of the recently announced US-Iran ceasefire.

Although news of a two-week truce initially boosted market sentiment earlier in the week, optimism soon began to fade. Continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon cast doubt on the stability of the agreement reached between Washington and Tehran.

As a result, markets appeared caught between cautious optimism and renewed geopolitical concern.

This indecision limited movement in the safe-haven US Dollar, leaving USD exchange rates rangebound.

The Pound (GBP) also struggled to find momentum, with a more cautious market mood limiting demand for the increasingly risk-sensitive currency.

At the same time, the absence of any notable UK economic releases left Sterling without a clear catalyst.

This lack of direction saw GBP trade in a narrow range, as investors held back from making decisive moves.

Short-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Inflation Data in Focus

A raft of key US data may drive movement in the GBP/USD exchange rate on Friday.

The spotlight will be on the latest US consumer price index, which is expected to offer an early indication of how the US-Iran conflict has impacted inflationary pressures. Forecasts suggest headline inflation could climb from 2.4% to 3.3%, a result that may bolster the US Dollar by curbing expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Later in the session, the University of Michigan’s preliminary consumer sentiment reading for April could also influence USD. While a slight decline in confidence is anticipated, a sharper-than-expected drop may limit the currency’s gains.

At the same time, broader market sentiment is likely to remain a key driver for GBP/USD. Any renewed tensions or signs the ceasefire is faltering may support the safe-haven US Dollar, while improving risk appetite could help Sterling find some support.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts