Pound to Dollar Forecast: 6-Week GBP/USD Best Above 1.35

Modified: Tuesday, 14 April 2026 10:11 BST - Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: 6-Week GBP/USD Best Above 1.35

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) held firm above 1.3400 despite a dip to 1.3380, as renewed Iran tensions and a surge in oil prices tested market confidence.

With geopolitical risks intensifying and volatility rising, Sterling remains range-bound, with traders watching whether GBP/USD can hold support or push back towards the 1.3460 resistance zone.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Survives Initial Retreat

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate dipped to 1.3380 in Asian trading on Monday before a recovery to 1.3425 with market resilience again a key issue.

The dollar gained a lift from renewed fears surrounding the Iran situation. The weekend talks between US and Iranian officials failed to make a breakthrough, increasing concerns that the ceasefire would not hold.

According to UoB; “the price action suggests that GBP has likely entered a rangetrading phase. For the time being, we expect GBP to trade between 1.3270 and 1.3460.”

UBS still expects the dollar will slide later in the year with an end-2026 GBP/USD forecast of 1.40.

After the talks failed to make a breakthrough, President Trump announced that the US would instigate a blockade to stop Iranian ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

There was a fresh jump in oil prices on supply fears with Brent jumping close to 8% and just below $100 p/b.

Danske Bank commented on Brent; “It traded above USD110/bbl before the ceasefire announcement last week and there is a clear possibility it will rise back to this level if the sides do not restart talks in the coming days.”

Overall risk appetite was less confident with weaker equities, although the overall impact was limited.

ING commented; “The focus now shifts to whether the naval blockade encourages another round of negotiations, whether the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen try to block the southern end of the Red Sea and what the likes of China make of interference in their oil imports.”
BNP Paribas noted that risks have increased; "We did expect negotiations to be difficult and lengthy but assumed that this weekend’s talks would be the beginning of a process which would, at least, result in a degree of situational stabilisation. This view was clearly misplaced."
According to Rabobank; “On one hand, US escalation might work. Yet unless Iran were to crumble quickly, the prospect is of an even deeper global energy crisis ahead first.”
BNP did note the political pressure; "we would not be surprised if the negotiations are restarted relatively quickly given the current ceasefire timeline."
The reaction of central banks will also be an important underlying element for markets, especially with upward pressure on headline inflation.

ING commented; “Away from the geopolitical headlines which will bounce the dollar around this week, the market focus will likely be on central bank reaction functions.”

The UK inflation data for March will not be released until next week, but Bank of England comments will be watched closely.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts