GBP/USD Forecast: US Dollar Supported by Middle East Uncertainty Ahead of UK GDP

Modified: Thursday, 11 June 2026 21:01 BST - Written by Minesh Chaudhari

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: US Dollar Supported by Middle East Uncertainty Ahead of UK GDP

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate struggled to gain traction on Thursday, with investor sentiment dented by lingering uncertainty in the Middle East.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3362, slightly lower on the day.

The US Dollar (USD) stood its ground against a majority of its peers on Thursday, as a broad wave of risk aversion fuelled demand for the safe-haven currency.

Escalating friction in the Middle East weighed heavily on market risk appetite following a second consecutive day of US airstrikes against Iran.

While this latest flare-up threatens to disrupt peace negotiations, media reports suggesting that diplomatic discussions are still quietly underway helped stabilise market sentiment. Ultimately, these rumours capped the 'Greenback' from advancing any further.

The increasingly risk-sensitive Pound (GBP) encountered headwinds amid the downbeat market sentiment on Thursday.

However, Sterling managed to avoid steep declines thanks to a retreat in UK government bond yields. Despite the geopolitical friction in the Middle East, energy commodities held relatively steady, which helped soothe worries within the bond market.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK Growth Data in Focus

Looking ahead, Friday’s UK GDP release could drive movement in the GBP/USD exchange rate.

The British economy is expected to have shrunk by 0.1% in April. A contraction could revive concerns over the UK’s economic outlook, potentially denting demand for the Pound.

Such a result may also prompt investors to pare back Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hike bets ahead of next week’s policy decision, placing further pressure on Sterling.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar could take direction from the University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment index. Economists expect morale to have improved in June, which may lend the ‘Greenback’ support.

Ongoing geopolitical anxiety could also buoy USD, particularly if tensions in the Middle East continue to keep investors wary.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts