Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: JOLTS Miss, Hormuz Hopes Weigh on USD

Modified: Wednesday, 5 August 2026 08:31 BST - Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: JOLTS Miss, Hormuz Hopes Weigh on USD

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate edged higher on Tuesday after fresh evidence suggested the US labour market is continuing to lose momentum.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3458, up approximately 0.2% from the start of Tuesday's session.

The US Dollar (USD) weakened on Tuesday after the latest US employment data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may have less need to tighten monetary policy in the months ahead.

The latest JOLTS report revealed that job openings declined by more than markets had forecast, signalling softer demand for workers and prompting investors to scale back expectations of another US interest rate increase.

The 'Greenback' also lost ground as market sentiment improved following comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent regarding the Strait of Hormuz.

Bessent suggested a deal to reopen the strategically important shipping route could be agreed within days, encouraging hopes that months of disruption to global trade may soon come to an end and reducing demand for safe-haven currencies like the US Dollar.

The Pound (GBP) traded in a narrow range on Tuesday as a quiet domestic data calendar offered investors little fresh direction.

Calmer conditions in the UK bond market also contributed to the subdued trading environment.

Benchmark 10-year gilt yields remained broadly stable throughout the session, suggesting concerns surrounding the UK's fiscal outlook have eased after the initial volatility sparked by Prime Minister Andy Burnham's early policy announcements.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Services PMI Data Takes Centre Stage

Attention turns to Wednesday's economic calendar, with the latest ISM services PMI expected to provide the next key driver for the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate.

Forecasts suggest the survey will show activity in the US services sector accelerated last month, a result that could revive expectations of further Federal Reserve policy tightening and offer renewed support to the US Dollar.

Earlier in the day, the UK will release its final services PMI for July.

The index is expected to confirm that activity in Britain's dominant services sector returned to growth, helped by stronger consumer spending during the summer period and increased demand linked to the World Cup.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts