Pound-to-Dollar Forecast: GBP Climbs on Strait of Hormuz Deal Hopes

Modified: Thursday, 6 August 2026 10:01 BST - Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound-to-Dollar Forecast: GBP Climbs on Strait of Hormuz Deal Hopes

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate moved higher on Wednesday as a brighter market mood reduced demand for traditional safe-haven currencies.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3478, up approximately 0.2% from Wednesday’s opening levels.

The US Dollar (USD) weakened during Wednesday’s session as investors rotated away from defensive assets amid growing confidence that tensions in the Middle East could continue to ease.

Markets were encouraged by reports that negotiations involving the US, Iran and Oman over reopening the Strait of Hormuz were progressing well, fuelling expectations that an agreement could be reached in the near future.

The ‘Greenback’ also faced headwinds from a run of underwhelming US economic releases.

The latest ADP employment survey revealed private payroll growth slowed to just 44,000 in July, while the ISM services PMI also disappointed, indicating activity in the dominant services sector lost more momentum than expected.

The Pound (GBP) found modest support on Wednesday after revised survey data pointed to a healthier performance from the UK’s services sector.

July’s final S&P Global services PMI was revised higher from the preliminary estimate, signalling a stronger rebound in business activity after weakness earlier in the summer.

The improved figures reinforced expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) could still retain a relatively hawkish stance later this year if domestic economic resilience persists.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Payrolls Report to Set the Tone for USD?

Looking ahead, trading in the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate may remain cautious as investors await Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report.

The employment figures are expected to play a pivotal role in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. Another disappointing labour market update would likely weaken confidence in a September rate hike and place further pressure on the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, with the UK economic calendar relatively quiet, Sterling’s direction is likely to remain closely linked to broader market sentiment. Should optimism surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to improve, the Pound may remain well supported against the safe-haven US Dollar.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts