Pound Sterling Forecast: GBP/USD Nears $1.32 ahead of Crucial US Payrolls

Modified: Thursday, 1 October 2026 22:11 BST - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Pound Sterling Forecast: GBP/USD Nears $1.32 ahead of Crucial US Payrolls

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate moved lower on Thursday, with escalating geopolitical tensions driving investors towards safer assets.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3212, having fallen by almost 0.4% over the course of the day.

The US Dollar (USD) strengthened on Thursday as rising geopolitical tensions and renewed concerns over oil prices prompted investors to seek the safety of the ‘Greenback’.

Market anxiety grew following a Ukrainian strike on a Russian oil facility, while US President Donald Trump threatened to ‘blow up’ Iran if negotiations failed to produce a favourable deal.

The developments fuelled demand for safe-haven assets.

The US Dollar maintained its gains into the afternoon, even after the latest ISM manufacturing PMI report fell short of expectations.

The index slipped to 54.5 in September from 54.6, missing forecasts of 55.

Nevertheless, the figures still indicated that US manufacturing activity expanded at a solid pace last month, despite the slight loss of momentum.

The Pound (GBP) struggled to gain traction on Thursday, as a lack of significant UK economic releases offered little to guide Sterling.

The day’s main data point was the final UK manufacturing PMI for September, which was revised down marginally to 51.9.

While this marked an improvement on August’s reading of 51.7, it fell short of the initial estimate of 52.

The modest downgrade did little to encourage demand for the Pound, while broader risk aversion added to the pressure on the increasingly risk-sensitive currency.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Payrolls Take Centre Stage

Attention turns to Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report, which could set the tone for the GBP/USD exchange rate heading into the weekend.

The US economy is forecast to have created 90,000 jobs in September, down sharply from August’s 162,000 but still a respectable result by recent standards.

A reading in line with expectations could provide modest support for the US Dollar.

However, a significant deviation from forecasts could trigger a sharper reaction.

Stronger-than-expected job growth may lift the ‘Greenback’, while a weaker result could send it lower as markets reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

With little UK economic data due on Friday, the Pound is likely to take its cues from broader market sentiment and developments overseas.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts