Pound-to-Dollar Weekly Forecast: Analysts Remain Bullish on Sterling

Modified: Monday, 9 November 2026 13:44 BST - Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound-to-Dollar Weekly Forecast: Analysts Remain Bullish on Sterling

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) retreated from seven-week highs around 1.3500 to 1.3350 as stronger US jobs data and a renewed technology-stock sell-off helped the Dollar recover from its initial post-election losses.

UBS remains bullish on Pound Sterling, forecasting a rise to 1.41 by mid-2027, while Rabobank expects the Dollar to retain enough support to keep GBP/USD near 1.30 over the next year.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Democrat Tsunami

UBS is forecasting the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate will strengthen to 1.41 by the middle of next year amid a robust Pound

In contrast, Rabobank has a 12-month GBP/USD forecast of 1.30 as the dollar maintains a firm tone.

GBP/USD tested 7-week highs at 1.35 during the week before a retreat to 1.3350. After initial losses after the US mid-term elections the dollar recovered amid a slide in risk appetite and stronger than expected jobs data. The Bank of England (BoE) rate hike offered net Pound support.

UBS maintains a positive Pound outlook; “Recent UK economic data reinforce our constructive view, with surprises continuing to come on the upside. At the same time, speculative futures positioning in the GBP remains strongly short. The combination of resilient fundamentals and bearish positioning leaves considerable scope for short covering.”

US equity markets posted sharp losses late in the week with a further sharp sell-off in the tech sector. In part, this reflected fears that there will be a slowdown in AI spending under a Democrat Congress.

There were very strong gains for the Democrats in the mid-term elections. The party has secured a majority of at least 8 in the Senate and a strong majority in the House.

There will inevitably be a complex relationship between Congress and the Administration.

Scotiabank noted a high degree of uncertainty; “the midterm results carry significant implications across a range of areas. The risk of congressional gridlock is also heightened, given the potential use of presidential veto power as well as possible congressional efforts to block the administration’s agenda.”

Rabobank sees the possibility of a more credible fiscal policy; "In essence more fiscal prudence, while USD negative in the short-term, is likely to positively impact the credibility of the greenback and its safe haven character over the long-term."

Domestically, the BoE increased interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%, in line with strong expectations.

All members voted for a hike with Mann backing a larger 50 basis-point increase.

The bank expects UK inflation will hit 5% early next year and indicated that a further increase was likely unless energy prices retreated.

MUFG commented; “Markets have priced in a greater risk of another hike as soon as December, although the timing remains highly dependent on energy prices and evidence of second-round inflation effects.”

It added; “Stronger-than-expected UK growth and the prospect of further tightening should remain supportive for GBP heading into year-end. However, the deepening sell-off in AI-related tech stocks could dampen upside for UK rates and the GBP.”

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John's new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way, ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts