Foreign Currency Prediction - Pound Canadian Dollar Rate Could Deteriorate

February 14, 2011 - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Foreign Currency Prediction - Pound Canadian Dollar Rate Could Deteriorate

The Canadian Dollar benefitted from some extremely positive trade figures which were released at the start of Friday’s North American session. The data showed that Canada enjoyed a trade surplus in December, 2010, for the first time in nine months. Analysts had expected the figure to show another deficit of CAD300m; instead market participants were surprised by a large surplus of CAD3bn. The overall growth in exports for December came in at 9.7%, which represented the largest monthly increase since 1982. Analysts suggest that this strong trading performance is due to the rally in world oil prices which built up momentum throughout 2010. The USA represents Canada’s primary export market for crude oil and Canada’s trade surplus with the States in December stood at its highest level since the Autumn of 2008, providing grounds for optimism for the Canadian Dollar over coming weeks.

The Canadian Dollar also picked up support just before Friday’s close in the North American market as political uncertainty in Egypt continued to subdue appetite for risk across the globe. Although not usually known as a safe-haven currency, the Canadian Dollar made significant gains, especially against the Euro, as investors sought out currencies backed by strong fundamentals.

This week sees a light schedule for Canadian data releases, with analysts closely watching Wednesday’s manufacturing numbers for further proof that the Canadian economy is advancing. Friday could prove key to predicting the near-term trend for the CAD, with the release of headline CPI Inflation figures for January. A figure higher than the expected 2.4% would provide support for the Canadian currency. Leading up to Friday, a heavy schedule of US data releases, including key retail sales and inflation numbers, could see gains for the Canadian Dollar, if the US come out worse than anticipated.

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TAGS: Canadian Dollar Forecasts Pound Canadian Dollar Forecasts