Forex Forecast : Rate Predictions For GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, CAD, SGD

May 31, 2011 - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Forex Forecast : Rate Predictions For GBP, USD, EUR, AUD, CAD, SGD

POUND STERLING

No data of note was released in the UK today, so the Pound suffered limited downside against most of the majors as the market continued to pare its expectations of a near-term cut in UK interest rates. Tomorrow’s residential mortgage numbers and PMI Manufacturing survey for May will further determine investors’ expectations of an interest hike in June. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


US DOLLAR – The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is 1.6468

A slew of Dollar-negative data released this afternoon has heaped further pressure on the beleaguered Greenback. May’s US Consumer Confidence survey came out significantly worse than expectations, as did the S&P/Case Schiller US Home Price number and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Survey, causing the EUR USD rate to gain almost 1% by mid-session. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


EURO – The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP/EUR) is 1.1447

The Euro bucked its recent trend and enjoyed a day of gains today. Market whispers of a second bail-out for Greece gathered pace following comments by Eurogroup leader, Jean-Claude Juncker, who suggested that a second Greek bail-out could be in place by late June, avoiding the necessity for a ‘re-structuring’ of Greece’s financial commitments. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR – The Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) is 1.5465

The Australian Dollar has given up further ground today following the release of a raft of Australian economic data which was released during last night’s Asian session. Domestic Credit Expansion figures disappointed and a worse-than-expected Current Account figure suggested that the strong Australian Dollar is starting to hurt Aussie exporters. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


CANADIAN DOLLAR – The Pound Canadian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/CAD) is 1.5941

Yesterday’s Canadian GDP Growth data came out broadly in-line with expectations, whilst Canadian Trade numbers bettered expectations. The Bank of Canada chose to hold interest rates at 1.00% this afternoon, as was widely expected. The CAD has gained ground on the day, partly through relief that Canada’s central bank has avoided a surprise rate cut and partly thanks to yesterday’s trade figures. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.


SINGAPORE DOLLAR – The Pound Singapore Dollar exchange rate (GBP/NOK) is 2.0328

The Singapore Dollar has trended stronger against the majority of the sixteen most-actively traded global currencies since the start of August 2010. Singapore’s real economy continues to out-perform that of almost every other developed nation, with economic activity showing a quarterly increase of an incredible 22.5% in the first three months of this year. The SGD upside looks set to carry on as investors continue to use the Singapore Dollar as a hedge against the troubled USD. A re-visit of the 2.00 level looks likely for the GBP SGD exchange rate sooner rather than later and a break lower can not be ruled out. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – POSITIVE.


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