Pound-to-Euro Near 1.1950 as Crucial UK Growth Figures Loom

Modified: Wednesday, 11 November 2026 20:01 BST - Written by Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Pound-to-Euro Near 1.1950 as Crucial UK Growth Figures Loom

The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate traded within a narrow range on Wednesday as a lack of significant economic releases from the UK and Eurozone left investors awaiting fresh direction.

At the time of writing, GBP/EUR was trading at around €1.1954, virtually unchanged on the day but having recovered slightly from Tuesday's two-week low of €1.1940.

The Euro (EUR) struggled to establish a clear direction as an empty Eurozone economic calendar left the single currency largely dependent on developments elsewhere.

Broader market movements provided conflicting signals, preventing the Euro from making significant gains against Sterling.

The US Dollar (USD) strengthened during Wednesday's session as investors continued to assess the possibility of a larger Federal Reserve interest rate increase in December.

The Euro's typically negative correlation with the 'Greenback' created some downward pressure on the single currency, limiting its appeal against other major currencies.

However, renewed hopes of progress towards a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia helped offset some of this weakness.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described US-mediated negotiations between the two countries as 'constructive and quite substantive', raising hopes that diplomatic efforts could eventually lead to an easing of the conflict.

The prospect of progress towards peace offered some encouragement to European markets, with investors considering the potential economic benefits of reduced geopolitical tensions.

An improvement in the security outlook could help ease uncertainty surrounding European trade and energy supplies, although any lasting economic benefits would depend on the outcome of negotiations.

For now, the encouraging diplomatic developments helped prevent the Euro from suffering more substantial losses despite the Dollar's renewed strength.

The Pound (GBP), meanwhile, also struggled to establish a clear direction on Wednesday as investors awaited Thursday's preliminary UK GDP figures.

With no major domestic economic releases scheduled, Sterling lacked the momentum needed to recover more decisively from its recent losses against the Euro.

The upcoming growth figures are expected to provide an important indication of how well the British economy has performed despite elevated borrowing costs and persistent inflation.

Investors are particularly interested in whether economic activity has remained resilient enough to support further Bank of England (BoE) interest rate increases.

Last week's decision to raise Bank Rate to 4% was accompanied by hawkish guidance suggesting that additional tightening could be necessary to bring inflation under control.

However, concerns remain about the impact of higher interest rates on household spending and business investment.

Thursday's GDP release could therefore influence expectations for the pace of future monetary tightening.

With the data approaching, investors appeared reluctant to take significant new positions in Sterling, leaving GBP/EUR trading close to €1.1950.

Near-Term GBP/EUR Forecast: Could Stronger UK GDP Lift Sterling Back Towards €1.20?

The Pound to Euro exchange rate could experience increased volatility on Thursday as investors assess the latest UK economic growth figures.

Preliminary estimates are expected to show that GDP expanded by 0.7% during the third quarter, accelerating from 0.5% in the previous three months.

A reading in line with or above expectations would suggest that the UK economy has maintained relatively solid momentum despite elevated borrowing costs.

Stronger growth could reinforce expectations that the Bank of England has room to raise interest rates further without significantly undermining economic activity.

This may provide Sterling with fresh support, potentially allowing GBP/EUR to recover towards the psychologically important €1.2000 level.

However, disappointing GDP figures could revive concerns about the UK's economic outlook and raise questions about how much additional monetary tightening the economy can withstand.

Such an outcome could put renewed pressure on the Pound, potentially bringing Tuesday's two-week low of €1.1940 back into focus.

A sustained move below this level could leave GBP/EUR vulnerable to a further retreat towards €1.1900.

For the Euro, Thursday's relatively quiet economic calendar means broader market developments are likely to remain influential.

Movements in French government bond yields could provide some direction, particularly after the recent decline in borrowing costs helped ease concerns about France's public finances.

Further signs of progress in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia could also support sentiment towards the single currency.

Meanwhile, the Euro's negative correlation with the US Dollar may continue to influence trading, especially if Federal Reserve interest rate expectations drive further Dollar gains.

With GBP/EUR holding near €1.1950, Thursday's UK GDP figures could determine whether Sterling stages a recovery towards €1.20 or extends its recent decline.

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TAGS: Pound Euro Forecasts