Foreign Exchange Insight : Soft Global Data Releases Suppress GBP USD Rate, While GBP AUD Breaks Higher

July 4, 2011 - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Foreign Exchange Insight : Soft Global Data Releases Suppress GBP USD Rate, While GBP AUD Breaks Higher

The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP EUR) is 1.1074. The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP USD) is 1.6084. The Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP AUD) is 1.4994.

Global data releases during last Friday’s session were once again of a softer nature than analysts had been expecting, causing a dampening effect on investors’ appetite for risk.

Friday’s Asian session set the tone for the day, with the release of China’s PMI Manufacturing survey for June, which printed at 50.9 versus expectations of 51.5, hinting that recent measures by Chinese policy-makers to tighten domestic monetary policy and rein in price rises are having a cooling effect on China’s manufacturing base.

As the session progressed, weaker-than-anticipated Purchasing Managers’ Index numbers were released in Switzerland and Germany. The UK’s PMI Manufacturing survey for June also disappointed, coming in at 51.3 versus expectations of 52.3, showing that expansion in the UK’s manufacturing base dropped to its lowest rate in 21 months last month.

Friday’s figures were the latest in a series of weak global numbers, suggesting that the worldwide economic recovery is losing momentum. The theme of weak global data releases was continued during last night’s Asian session, with the release of Australian Retail Sales figures, which showed that Australian shop sales had dropped by their largest amount for seven months in May. Analysts had factored-in a moderate rise.

Fears over the recovery of the real economy tempered the surge in appetite for risk which followed last Wednesday and Thursday’s votes in favour of the proposed austerity package in Greece’s parliament. This dampening effect caused a limiting of gains for the GBP USD pair, which closed the session below 1.6100, while the GBP AUD rate has rejected last Thursday’s 26-year low of 1.4887 to briefly break back above 1.5000 during last night’s Asian session.

If this morning’s Swiss Retail Sales data and Eurozone Producer Price Index and Sentix Investor Confidence survey also disappoint, then further downside is possible for GBP USD.


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