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Foreign Exchange Rates : Currency Predictions - GBP, USD, EUR, AED

December 2, 2011 - Written by John Cameron

POUND STERLING

This morning’s UK PMI Manufacturing sector survey for November narrowly beat analysts’ expectations, but still showed a slowdown in Britain’s manufacturing sector in comparison with October’s figure. If Monday’s PMI Services sector survey goes the same way, then there is potential for the Pound to start the week on the front foot. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL.


US DOLLAR – The Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP USD) is 1.5593

Good news for the US’s real economy this afternoon, as November’s employment figures showed that the unemployment rate in the world’s leading economy dipped to 8.6%, from October’s counterpart figure of 9.0%. This is the lowest level of joblessness in the US economy for thirty months. Initially, the figure has elicited considerable support for the Greenback, however if the figure causes global appetite for risk to improve, then the Dollar may begin to weaken off considerably. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


EURO – The Pound Euro exchange rate (GBP EUR) is 1.1642

German Chancellor Angela Merkel used a set piece speech earlier today to call for closer fiscal union for the Eurozone. The currency markets were not overly impressed, as the Euro lost ground against both the Pound and the US Dollar on the session. There was some comfort for investors holding Euros later in the European session when credit ratings agency Fitch stated that it had ‘no immediate plans’ to downgrade Spain’s credit rating. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEAGTIVE.


ARAB EMIRATES DIRHAM – The Pound Dirham exchange rate (GBP AED) is 5.7275
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The Dirham remains directly pegged to the US Dollar, so any relative strength, or weakness, in the USD is directly mirrored in Dirham movements. The Dirham came under significant selling pressure in the middle part of the week, as global risk sentiment improved following news of a concerted intervention in the currency markets by six of the world’s leading central banks. This afternoon’s highly positive US labour market data has the potential to further weaken the Dirham. NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK – NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.


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