Exchange Rate Forecast: Will Pound to US Dollar, AUS & NZ Dollars Move Today?

April 25, 2014 - Written by Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Exchange Rate Forecast: Will Pound to US Dollar, AUS & NZ Dollars Move Today?

Geo-political risk events look likely to dominate proceedings in the global currency markets during today’s session, affecting the relative level of the US Dollar (USD exchange rate) and the high yielding currencies. Look out for pronounced movement on the day for the Pound Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) as well as for the Pound Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) and Pound New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rates.

Today's key Pound Sterling exchange rates (As of 10:00 25/04/2014):
- Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate is trading down -0.05% at 1.81270 GBP/AUD.
- Pound Sterling to Euro exchange rate is trading down -0.02% at 1.21502 GBP/EUR.
- Pound Sterling to US Dollar exchange rate is trading up +0.04% at 1.68146 GBP/USD.

US Dollar exchange rate (USD) sees upside to Ukraine situation

As the week draws to a close, the situation in Ukraine is increasingly resembling a civil war. Ukrainian forces attacked and overpowered a checkpoint in the East of the country which had been commandeered by pro-Moscow separatists yesterday. The action was judged to be an incendiary one by Russia, which in the words of the former Soviet state’s Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu meant that Moscow was ‘forced to react’ to. The stepping up of military exercises by Russian forces on the country’s border with the Ukraine has served to escalate tensions, causing some institutional investors to shift out of risk laden assets and back into the safe haven of the US Dollar. The upshot saw the GBP USD exchange rate edge lower as yesterday’s session waned.

Pound to Australian Dollar & New Zealand Dollar Forecast Higher

Elsewhere, the news that Israel has suspended its ongoing peace talks with Palestine due to Hamas’s pact with the Palestinian administration threatens to increase any ‘risk off’ trading environment in global share markets today. Such a reaction would be likely to send the Pound Australian Dollar GBP AUD and Pound New Zealand Dollar sharply higher once more GBP NZD.

The major data release for today, as far as investors holding Sterling-denominated assets are concerned at least, comes during the early part of today’s session with the publication of last month’s UK Retail Sales numbers. Analysts are expecting a slight improvement on February’s positive showing of 3.6%, meaning that Sterling could be set for a fall. Such an outcome could dampen any forward move for the GBP AUD and GBP NZD exchange rates.

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