Exchange Rate Forecasts: Pound Sterling, Euro, US Dollar & NZ Dollar (GBP EUR USD NZD)

April 28, 2014 - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Exchange Rate Forecasts: Pound Sterling, Euro, US Dollar & NZ Dollar (GBP EUR USD NZD)

Here's our exchange rate forecast roundup for the Pound Sterling (GBP), Euro (EUR), US Dollar (USD) and New Zealand Dollar (NZD) exchange rates.

The POUND STERLING (currency:GBP) has failed to shine so far today, struggling to break into positive territory against any of the other sixteen most actively traded global currencies with the exception of the Antipodean Dollars. This morning’s report from the Confederation of British Industry described the outlook for the UK economy for the remainder of the year as ‘exceptionally strong’, but support for the Pound has still waned. Tomorrow’s UK GDP figures for Q1 will be market-moving; in the meantime Sterling is forecast to trade with a NEUTRAL bias.

The EURO (currency:EUR) has traded on an even keel against both the Pound and the US Dollar so far today, meaning that the Sterling euro exchange rate has held steady around the 1.2150 level. Slightly disappointing German import data for March, published earlier, has raised fears regarding a slowdown in the eurozone’s premier economy. Tomorrow’s German inflation figures are the next risk event of note for the single currency; the short term outlook for the eurozone tender remains NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.

The US DOLLAR (currency:USD) has struggled on the day, sending the GBP USD exchange rate up to as high as 1.6858 earlier. The Buck has been friendless on the day as investors sit on their hands ahead of Wednesday’s Federal reserve FOMC policy decision; fears remain that the US central bank may look to calm edgy equities markets by slowing the pace of its Quantitative Easing taper. This afternoon’s better than anticipated Pending Home Sales have helped steady the ship, but the Greenback is still expected to trade on a NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE footing ahead of Wednesday evening.

The NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (currency:NZD) has been the worst performing of the major currencies today. The move out of Kiwi-denominated assets comes ahead of tonight’s New Zealand Trade Balance data which the markets has high expectations for. A disappointing showing could heap the pressure on the Kiwi. After tonight’s figure, the main event this week for investors holding the NZD comes on Wednesday evening with the latest US Federal reserve FOMC policy announcement. An extension of QE in the States would assist the high-yielding Kiwi. The outlook for NZD moving forward is NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE and the current GBP NZD exchange rate stands at 1.9711.

Last updated: 29/04/2014

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