Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Predictions For GBP EUR USD AUD

Modified: Thursday, 10 July 2014 23:28 BST - Written by John Cameron

STORY LINK Foreign Currency Exchange Rate Predictions For GBP EUR USD AUD

The POUND STERLING (currency:GBP) has recorded reasonable gains against most of the other leading global currencies with the exception of the US Dollar so far today. A ‘no change’ decision from the Bank of England’s policy committee earlier was broadly viewed as ‘market neutral’, and investors have so far set to one side this morning’s dire UK import / export numbers which showed a trade gap of a massive £9.2bn last month. Market participants may not take such a laissez faire approach to this startling figure once the dust settles, meaning that the near-term forecast for the Pound is NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE.

The EURO (currency:EUR) has failed to pick up any fresh support in the market today following the publication of the European Central Bank’s monthly report earlier. The missive from the euroland central bank didn’t deliver anything new, but did reiterate its earlier pledge to maintain its key interest rate at ultra low levels for an extended period of time. Look out for tomorrow’s German Consumer Price Index inflation numbers have the potential to be market-moving. In the meantime, the single currency is expected to trade with a NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE bias and the current GBP EUR exchange rate sits at 1.2581.

The US DOLLAR (currency:USD) has firmed against both the Pound and the euro during today’s session. Last night’s memos of the latest US Federal Reserve policy meeting proved to be supportive to the Greenback, backing up investors’ theory that the Fed will have completed the phasing out of the Quantitative Easing programme which it embarked upon in 2009 by the end of October. This afternoon’s encouraging weekly US Initial Jobless Claims data added to the generalised picture that the economic situation in America is on the mend. The current GBP USD exchange rate stands at 1.7122 and the outlook for the Buck is NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE.

The AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (currency:AUD) improved against the Pound overnight following a better than expected set of Australian job creation data. However, the Aussie has lost its shine as today’s session progressed thanks to last night’s overall unemployment numbers which showed an unexpected uptick. A firmly ‘risk off’ trading environment in the global markets today has also hindered the high-yielding Aussie. If institutional investors continue to seek out safe havens then the Australian tender is likely to give up further ground, making the outlook for the Aussie NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE. The GBP AUD exchange rate stands at 1.8262.

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